`14: The Offseason That Keeps Punishing the Yanks
Today was just the latest example of idiocy of the McAnn signing. Last year it made them trade Cervelli, who went on to a good season with Pittsburgh, today it made them trade John Ryan Murphy, who was already better than McAnn this past season, and will surprise in Minnesota. Anyone who thinks the Yanks are currently deep at C in the organization is out of his mind, btw. Behind McAnn, they currently have Austine Romine, a non-prospect who never developed after a good second half in Charleston, plus Gary Sanchez, a possible star, then a bunch of org filler, then Luis Torrens who was injured all year, and then more org filler, until the Dominican, and some of those guys aren't even catchers yet. So, they were much stronger at MLB and MLB ready OF than they were at C.
Further, signing Ellsbury, who has been brutally underwhelming as a Yank, almost always meant they were going to have to trade Gardy, a better player, and a better deal. Today they added further to their glut of OF's when they added Hicks.
And Beltran has had a few good months, though, ARod's presence makes us play a DH in RF most days.
The Yanks would have been monstrously better off making 3 first round picks in `14, and platooning Cervelli and Murphy then Murphy and Sanchez than buying a declining McAnn and having to trade Cervelli and Murphy. Bad stuff.
Also, it looks like they helf onto Pirella too long, as they had previously held onto Nunez, too long. They ended up getting undersized minor league starters for both. Suboptimal.
Now we must wait for them to trade Gardy, an exemplary Yank who played as hard as he could every time he could.
posted by Kalel9 @ 3:36 PM
54 Comments:
It all boils down to an unwillingness to rebuild, even when it's obvious you should. I think the front office truly feels if they can give the likes of ARod, Teix and Beltran enough days off, the performance won't drop off late in the year. This, of course, means they're betting against age-related decline/injuries.
Wonder if they will sign a veteran backup catcher or let Romine/Murpshy compete for the backup spot in ST.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-planning-serious-run-wei-yin-chen-source-article-1.2431723
Say goodbye to that draft pick if this true.
Smart people admit their mistakes, they don't double down.
Some people like to give him a pass, but it's pretty clear that Cashman is not smart.
I disagree with Mike, they don't have to rebuild I just have to reload smartly, iow trust Williams or Slade. Nope, they would someone else's players
And make no mistake, they are reloading, but when you trade from an area of potential surplus to fill another area of surplus, largely because of handedness and that Hicks is a little further along than Williams or Slade, even though the later two have a higher ceiling, that's just not smart.
They stockpiled all these C. What do they have to show for it? The always injured Pineda and a platoon OF? Jeez.
As for Chen look at his FIP, it's over 4, and he is over 30. Not. Worth. A. Pick.
I hope that's not true about Chen. If they're going to spend big on a pitcher, sign Price.
LINJ, not signing the three they did in 2014 likely would have constituted a rebuild.
There are too many better pitchers who won't cost a pick...
Yanks didn't give up anything significant in Montero as he has failed to produce at the major league level.
Pirela never had a future in NY so losing him was not a big deal.
Perhaps Hicks can be fixed like Didi was. Maybe unloading Beltran is in the works.
Montero produced as a Yankee, and getting traded from the Yanks screwed him up.
Montero was a top five prospect. That was his value. What he became or becomes is a separate issue.
We don't know that Didi was fixed. He was very erratic offensively. BUT they had no other SS. They have OF
Actually they could have plugged in Ryan at SS and be done with it.
The other OFers and I figure are referring to in Williams and Heathcott need to play everyday. Heathcott seems to be hurt every year and Williams is coming off an injury that ended his season.
Getting Hicks to backup all 3 OF spots like Young did is not a bad move IMO but only time will tell.
I was a big John Ryan fan but I don't have an issue with obtaining Hicks. I don't like Ellsbury or Gardner in CF and Hicks is a plus-plus defender with a cannon. He batted .260 in the second half with 8 of his 11 homeruns and he also crushed lefties. I don't see him as a platoon player although he struggled against righties last year, his history does not suggest that he cannot hit them.
I think this is just the beginning of a major overhaul and we've seen time and time again how quickly we react on here when trades are made --- DiDi & Eovaldi were prime examples. Lets just show some patience and evaluate this at the end of the offseason.
Ryan is replacement level, Bob.
Despite not liking the trade for the reasons mentioned (the biggest being McCann and the ripple effects of a bad signing) Hicks will play everyday until or unless he proves he cannot, imo, replacing Gardner.
For this trade to work, Hicks has to be a 3 WAR player, they have to get a comparable asset for Gardner, and Sanchez has to get 150-200 AB in NY in 2016.
Aaron Gleeman, a Twins blogger, who I once had private email discussion (in around 2003, with him defending the then POTUS). He does know baseball though... ;)
In a move that clears some of their outfield logjam and brings in a much-needed alternative to Kurt Suzuki behind the plate, the Twins traded 26-year-old center fielder Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for 24-year-old catcher John Ryan Murphy. It's a classic example of dealing from an organization-wide area of strength (young outfielders) to address an organization-wide area of weakness (catching), although that in itself certainly doesn't guarantee a successful trade.
Hicks is a former first-round draft pick and top prospect who turned his career around this year, hitting .256/.323/.398 with plus defense in 97 games for the Twins after looking lost in his first two years as a big leaguer. As a switch-hitter with decent power, good plate discipline, excellent speed, and a strong arm he has all the tools needed to become an above-average starting center fielder, but Hicks is held back by his inability to hit right-handed pitching.
Through three seasons and 247 games in the majors Hicks has hit just .206/.284/.311 off righties and his time in the minors tells a similar story. He's been great off lefties, hitting .272/.360/.447 in the majors after also crushing them in the minors, but until proven otherwise Hicks looks best suited to start 2-3 times per week when a lefty is on the mound--which is the role he'll probably fill for the Yankees initially--and that severely limits his long-term upside.
Beyond that, even if Hicks shows enough improvement against righties to develop into a viable everyday player the Twins have no shortage of younger, higher-upside outfielders. By midseason their starting outfield could be Byron Buxton in center field flanked by Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, and publicly at least the Twins have been talking about giving Miguel Sano some outfield action too. Oswaldo Arcia and Danny Santana are also still in the mix.
Hicks is already a very useful part-time player with the potential to become more, but counting on that transformation would require a leap of faith the Twins were clearly not willing to take and his long-term role in Minnesota was tenuous. Trading him coming off his first positive showing in the majors makes sense from a hypothetical value standpoint, but it's unclear if Murphy represents particularly good value in return.
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If Hicks is a platoon player, who sits and how often? There just aren't enough AB v. LHP to justify trading Murphy for that limited of a role players.
Also, his primary value, as with Gardner, is as a CF. Why do that again? The Ellsbury signing was even more brutal than the brutal McCain signing.
It only works for me if he turns into Adam Jones Part II with more walks. I think Murphy has shown more upside at this point, so unless the analytics department thinks Hicks is suddenly going to put it together, this move doesn't make much sense IMO.
Jones hit for much more power in the mL.
Even some of Hick's recent mL seasons are scary bad.
Hicks development is tough to analyze, he's been rushed through their system and was beyond young for every level he's played at.
Again, I don't make judgement on trades right now - We'll see how the rest of the offseason turns out and how these players fare in the field during the season.
wallace matthews @ESPNNYYankees
. . . Hicksy admitted to lack of preparation at times in Minny. Sometimes he didn't even know who the opposing pitcher would be
wallace matthews @ESPNNYYankees
A call from HoF Rod Carew convinced Hicksy to go back to switch-hitting, will hit from both sides as a Yankee
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Will he be better than Slade, Williams, and Gamel? Will they be blocked because of him?
I assume Judge will play whenever he's ready.
I can see us trading Ellsbury to San Diego. I really think we're going to see a major overhaul.
NY would have to eat money and alot of it and/or take on a bad contract to move Ellsbury.
$105m for 5 years.
What's he worth?
Interesting that even in 2014, he was a 4 WAR player.
This year, .9. Peak, 9.4. Throw out both.
It's so hard to arrive at an average WAR for him due to injuries.
Let's say 3.5-4.5.
And you have to buyout his NTC.
So I would say the NYY would have to subsidize the contract by about 40% to trade him.
I think they could have done it more cheaply with McCann.
I would have been in favor of moving both.
My hunch is that Hicks would platoon with Slade or Mason.
I agree with this. I don't think they make the trade for what they think is a platoon hitter:
“A young, exciting talent,” general manager Brian Cashman said after Wednesday’s trade. “We think he’s an everyday player.”
“I learned I was never on time as a hitter,” he said. “Being a hitter, you have to know what the difference is between being on time and not being on time. Once I started doing the leg kick, I realized I’d never known what being on time was. I started doing the leg kick, and seeing the ball a lot better, seeing pitches out of the pitchers’ hands a lot easier. It was a big confidence booster, and I started making strides. … I’m actually working on being more of an aggressive hitter to take advantage of certain talents and being able to control the strike zone all over the place. I just want to be able to get better in my preparation as far as getting ready for pitchers.”
If this was the risk/reward of a 3B they acquired to get rid of the abominable Headley, I would be totally fine with it, assuming that didn't get rid of the feast or famine McCann instead.
Billy, I would love it if they could get out from under the Ellsbury contract. I just don't see it happening unless they eat a bunch of money and/or take on an equally bad contract in exchange.
Gardner is gone, maybe Beltran too.
Two OF moves are necessary for this to make sense, and I think we saw enough from Slade and Williams to think they can contribute, still being at a young enough age, that you don't have to discount age in trying to figure why they haven't made it yet.
Unfortunately, Slade is made of glass, and Williams has injured that same shoulder twice. You hope you can get something out of either, but I'm not sure you can count on health, especially with Slade.
But they massively, overpaid Ellsbury despite having a similar or worse injury record, same with Beltran to a lesser degree along with being geriatric baseball-wise, and they overpaid Headley despite knowing about his bad back.
Given the much better risk-reward, why wouldn't a reasonable GM give cheap options a chance?
What am I missing?
Beltran can hit but is a bad defender in RF but I am sure Hicks will be coming in late for him in games.
Ellsbury will bounce back to have a good year with Gardner basically packing his bags, we need a leadoff hitter.
Congrats to Mccann with the Silver Slugger award.
Here is hoping he catches less games in 2016 to keep him fresh.
So you can win a Silver Slugger while batting:
.200 .306 .395 .701
Afer the AS Break.
If anyone actually believes that award means something, now is the time to trade high.
Neither Ellbury nor Beltran can still on the field.
Unless they get novels written about them by Oscar Wilde, I don't know why that would change.
Apparently according to RAB, Cashman asked one team for 3 MLB ready players for Miller.
Value is high so unload him in the right deal.
He is the one recent FA signing that has appreciated in value.
Our Old AGM made a big trade for the Angels today.
LINJ, I didn't mean to imply Slade and Mason shouldn't be given a chance. Just that I can understand wanting insurance for those two.
Yeah, I don't know enough about the pitching prospects the Braves got back. Eppler's biggest task will be "managing" Scioscia.
OK, Mike, My concern is that Slade and Williams become expendable, at point at which they have figured it out while still truly young.
OT, but Rex Ryan acted like he won the SB. On second thought this could be as close as he gets.
Wasn't watching the Jets.
Slade and Mason could still turn into really good players. There've been a bunch of guys who were always hurt when they were young then suddenly weren't. Paul Molitor was one, but there've been a bunch.
I read some fairly positive reviews about the trade on Fangraphs, that Hicks can be solid rather than a star. Their projection system puts him near league average for a CF, similar to Gardner and Ellbury, which is why I don't like projection systems.
Anyway, it's not the player. It's, as I said, I like Slade and Williams, and don't like McCann's erratic offense, and inability to block balls in the dirt.
The other way to view the trade positively is to discount Murphy's offensive upside. I think that is a place where the eye test yields a more positive outlook than stats, similar to what we have seen with Cervelli, because offensively a C who can hit even league average is extremely valuable.
I thought and think JR Murphy will become and above aveage hitter and may make some alll star teams, in the future. And he'd be a lot farther along without the McAnn signing and all its repurcussions. JR was a 3B in HS, and got turned into a catcher leading up to his draft. He put his good hit tool in his back pocket while making himself a real catcher. Oh and the kid is tough as nails, too. Anyway, now that he's mastered catch and throw, he''ll get more time with the Twins and his hitting will emerge.
Kimbrel to the Red Sox for 4 prospects.
http://nypost.com/2015/11/13/ranking-baseballs-top-10-gms-yes-cashman-makes-the-list/
5. Brian Cashman, Yankees
That doesn't control for payroll.
Seriously how can anyone look at this mess of a roster and think he is good? Like Torre, his rep is built on Stick's genius.
Meanwhile the Miller bounty, should we decide to move him would have to be greater than the Kimbrel bounty.
Padres made out like bandits in that deal -- wow
It suggests to me that the Sux will be in Greinke or Price.
The Yankees are in a tough spot. Given their bad contracts the one player that might be able to let them compete at a high-level now while continuing to reload would be Price (and no pick is involved) but then that's potentially yet another bad contract down the road.
But since no big contracts are coming off the books is no way that Hal goes for that kind of money.
Interesting thought LINJ. But do they have the bucks without euchring someone to take Panda and/or Ramirez off their hands?
Whatever, I hope the Yanks don't outsmart themselves trying to react to the Sox.
From what I can see on my phone, according to the projections at Cots for 2016 they were at 152 before Kimbrel.
Looks like Yanks are passing on Zobrist thank goodness.
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