Draft Review Part Three: Arms Race?

The Yanks flipped out some of their fans by going with hitters before pitchers this past week, and then not drafting a prep pitcher till their late "here's to to you, kid" picks, that they have no intention of signing.  That's was surprising because lately they've been popping a big prep or two in the first 20 rounds like clockwork.  Last year they worked it that they took an injured collegiate RHP Clarke Schmidt to save slot space, then tapped prep RHP Matt Sauer in round 2 and spent most of what they had saved.  The year they took UCLA RHP James Kaprielian they followed that up with prep RHP Drew Findley.  In the year in between, they took prep RHP Nolan Martinez with a top three round pick.

So I think people were conditioned to expect and day one or two prep pitcher.  Heck, last year they popped RHP after RHP from round one through the end of the draft, almost excluding bats completely.  What we later learned was that last year's IFA class was low on premium arms but high on premium bats, and the Yanks grabbed their O there.

And I think that's a key to understanding what went on this week with all the catchers, some high OPS'ing other bats and some guys for SI, and fewer of the sort of big power arms they stocked up on last year, is that this year the really big arms are going to come from IFA. The Yanks are reportedly signing 2 or 3 Cuban imports on July 2, and we can expect that there's more than that.

Looking at the entirety of the pitching system, it might have been tought fitting in another high upside college arm.  You can't really start them in the GCL unless it's for rehab, and guys from High A up are having promotions delayed because there's a logjam between High A and AA.

So here's what it looks like the Yanks did: they took a a bunch of college relievers.  Many of whom are absolutely from the School of DRob.  Who were presumpitce relievers between 5'10" and 6'1". You can look through the earlier posts to see them all, I don't feel like going through the whole School of DRob again -- until they become Yankees and do DRob things.

In a draft that seemed to have a bunch of big pitchers, the Yanks only took 5 pitchers who were 6'5" or taller. Rodney Hutchison who is 6'5" 225,  Daniel Bies who is 6'8" and 245,  Tanner Myatt 6'7", Derek Craft 6'8" 220, and Charlie Ruegger 6'6" 218.

The Yanks also spent some of their pitching picks on rehabbing guys like Miami RHP Nick Ernst, who was hitting 97 before he got hurt and has already signed.  This might be a good bet for a sleeper. They also took Justin Wilson, a Vandy pitcher, who didn't pitch at all this year.  He's built more like a reliever, but you never know who the Yanks plan on making into a starter.

Anyway, the point about using Round 15 and  Round 23 to pick injured guys sort of shows what they though of whole class.  If they really liked Ernst and Wilson, they could have taken them in the top ten rounds and maybe gotten some useable savings like the did with Schmidt.  Instead they took them where they could gain no financial edge, and over presumably healthy guys.

So with the way guys like Chad Widmer pop up every year these days, my guess for the role with be Nick Ernst, and I guess if there's a conversion guy, I'd go with Tanner Myatt.

And I'll say if you feel this particular draft brought more impact bats than arms, wait for it.  What's it?  July 2nd.