A Month of Fundays

A New York Yankees, Giants, Knicks, Rangers and other stuff blog.


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Thursday, March 12, 2015

Giants Stuff: Killing Them With Routes

At the combine, and in general, some football teams and fans pay more attention to 40 times than they do to things like 3-cone times and short shuttle times.   The second two measure are far more predictive of quickness and change of direction and a player's ability to run routes than 40 times are. Rule of thumb says 3-cones under 7.0 are great and short shuttles close to 4 or in fairly rares cases below 4 are also really good.  

Before FA started, the Giants had 2 great route runners in OBJ and Victor Cruz, now with Vereen they have three -- if they draft Amari Cooper, they'll have 4.  In this day and age where everyone can run a good 40, except Shaq Thompson, it's the guys that can quickly shift directions and execute routes that will have the advantage.

Then Giants may have learned this lesson from Sinorice Moss, a player who could run the crap out of a 40, but had a bad 3-cone and not only couldn't explode into his routes, but had a terrible penchant for overestimating his ability to run around potential tacklers.  Literally, one of the worst Giant picks ever and a guy they actually traded up to get.

Anyway, he was the last guy they too like that and they really value the 3-cone now.   And in signing Shane Vereen ahead of a running back rich draft, they are once again putting the same premium on route running that lead them to draft Hakeem Nicks, sign Victor Cruz and draft OBJ.    Now they have a back who can run great routes.  

Vereen can really be boon to the O if we can get the OL straightened out.

8 Comments:

At 12:46 PM, Blogger Lawyer in NJ said...

I think they are at a crossroads. This draft will probably reveal whether the outliers were the past two drafts or the ones from 2008-1012.

There is no way of knowing with certainty.

I never thought they would be in this position a few years ago, but it is what it is.

The draft failures have forced a mad search for depth during the last two free agent periods.

They still have a lot of holes.

I'm not sure they can fix everything that needs to be fixed this offseason.

 
At 2:23 PM, Blogger Billy Martin said...

From Bill Barnwell @ Grantland:

Casillas Contract: Three years, $8 million, $2.975 million guaranteed
Harris Contract: Five years, $17.5 million, $7.1 million guaranteed
Thomas Contract: Three years, $12 million, $4.5 million guaranteed

I can piece together a logic in Jacksonville’s moves, even if I don’t necessarily agree or think that it’s settling for competency. I wish I could find the same strand of sense in what the Giants have done over the past few days. My vaguest guess is that they’re trying to improve their special teams, but they weren’t even all that bad on special teams last season, finishing 15th in DVOA. In each case, they’ve paid a premium for almost the definition of a replacement-level football player.

Casillas won a Super Bowl ring with the Patriots last year as a reserve linebacker after starting his season in Tampa Bay, which is just about the biggest upgrade you can imagine a football player making over the course of a season. (Sorry, Logan Mankins.) He started three games for the Patriots but played nearly as many special teams snaps in New England (145) as he did on defense (158). He’s a perfectly competent coverage guy on special teams and could profile as a backup linebacker, but you should be able to find those guys in the draft every year (or find them for close to the minimum) without having to pay them guaranteed money.

The deal for Thomas isn’t much different. Again, he’ll fill in as a special-teamer and should compete for a job as an outside linebacker. He was an anonymous member of Jacksonville’s defense over the past three seasons. The Giants committed $7.5 million in guaranteed money to him and Casillas when, elsewhere, it took the Patriots just $5.5 million in guaranteed money to nab Jabaal Sheard, a legitimate pass-rusher who would have played defensive end in New York. Bill Belichick is surely confident he can go out and find a special-teamer who will make the minimum. Why can’t GM Jerry Reese do the same?

The deal for Harris is probably the worst of the three. He was the lead return man in Dallas over the past four years, and while he had an excellent 2013, Dallas was below-average on kick returns and punt returns in 2014. At 27, Harris offers virtually no upside as a receiver. Furthermore, there’s little reason to think that the market for return men is such that the Giants couldn’t find a similar player at a fraction of the cost. They had Trindon Holliday, who looked like a superstar for a year in Denver, in camp last offseason before cutting him. The best return men in football last year were guys like Adam Jones, Jacoby Jones, Darren Sproles, and Julian Edelman, all of whom were once available for close to nothing.

Over the past two seasons, Reese has shown a similar propensity for giving replacement-level talent meaningful money as part of long-term contracts. Last year, it was guys like Rashad Jennings, J.D. Walton, and O’Brien Schofield (who had his contract annulled when he failed a physical). Where was the market to give Harris this much money? Was somebody really going to give him $6 million guaranteed and Reese had to top it? I can’t fault Reese too much as a scout, but in terms of valuing talent, it’s hard to justify the moves he’s made in March in recent years. You can kiss the rings only so many times.

 
At 3:02 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

a little ponderous. We'll see if specials improve.

 
At 3:38 PM, Blogger Lawyer in NJ said...

I happened to just read the Grantland piece. Again, it all comes back to trying to compensate for poor drafts, and having to take risk to do it.

It's as if they are pursuing guys they liked but missed on.

John Mara may like to pretend that his knowledge is sooo superior to the fans', but there is no reason for fans to be as deferential as he thinks they should be.

 
At 3:41 PM, Blogger Lawyer in NJ said...

OT, but here's something positive about the Yankees.

I love the Matsui signing. It is outside the box. Who knows if it will ever really matter, but it's not the Eppler-ish cookbook way.

 
At 3:55 PM, Blogger Lawyer in NJ said...

I think this is the key sentence and it is similar to a point I have made:

"I can’t fault Reese too much as a scout, but in terms of valuing talent, it’s hard to justify the moves he’s made in March in recent years. You can kiss the rings only so many times."

Reese may not have the ability to be more than a great scout. It's still an open question.

 
At 2:45 PM, Blogger Lawyer in NJ said...

So the Steelers extended Ben R.

If the Giants hadn't failed Eli with their joke of an OL over the last few years, his extension would have had to have been done already.

 
At 3:42 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

actually, they were waiting till either Rivers or Ben got extended. Eli's should be done in pretty short order. May now be waiting for JPP so JPP doesn't get to try to go for more.

 

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