Yanks Draft Stuff: Preps Vs. Collegians
To wit, under the new draft rules teams are always choosing between college players and preps. For the years leading up to the draft the Yanks were taking more and more preps as a percentage of the whole. Last year, they went mostly collegian because they gave away their top three picks, and thus had very low pool money. And guess what? They still had a good draft that added talent to the system and looks like it will provide major league help in the near and long terms.
This year they will have one of the biggest draft pools, and thus could go back to their preppy preference, unless the success of their college guys like Refsnyder, Judge and Lindgren, encourages them to go heavy on the college side yet again.
There might be more, to it, though. And this is SPECULATION. After the 13 season there was big but specious issue that the farm didn't have players ready to help the big league team, when they needed. The upshot was that the Yanks had a big talk with the scouts, and Hal said words to the effect that the scouts will be looking at other kinds of players.
At the time, that chilled me. It was quite clear that the Yanks for the past several years had been taking hitters with patience and pop, and pitchers with swing and miss stuff. So I wondered what he could be talking about -- also I was disgusted that he was hanging the underfunded scouts out to dry. It's the amatateur spending policies of the Yanks under Hal and NOT the scouts who have created the current mess.
Anyway, looking back at what happened thereafter, it's possible that they just told the scouts to pick more college players because they get ready faster. I think that was most likely the message because a) that's what they've done, and b) Even Hal must understand that OBP and swing and miss are good things.
So, even with the increased pool, the Yanks could still lean heavily toward collegians if that was the `13 edict.
Btw, I think they can have a good draft either way. Afterall, Lou Gehrig went to college. Of course, Mickey didn't. But, because the scouts are good at finding patience and pop, as well as swing and miss, they'll have a strong draft.
The one issue that could arise if they go heavily collegian again is that they could end up with a three tiered farm with a hug group of 21 and older, a relatively small group of 18-20 year olds that are almost exclusively foreign, and another big group of 16 anf 17 year old IFA's. That's another reason why Moncada was important to the conga line - he's 19 going on 20 and would throw a huge talent in that window for us. Anyway, the talent distribution per age will get a big screwed up if the Yanks go too heavily collegian again.
Stuff to think about, as it's our next good opportunity to grab amateur talent.
posted by Kalel9 @ 11:06 AM
13 Comments:
Hal sucks and is complete phony, but the mess precedes him.
But the amateur spending was going back up after the disastrous Tampa era, before Hal pushed it back down. It was really egregious before the rules change.
I'd be surprised if one of those first rounders didn't net us a college arm. The top of this draft has a ton of high-ceiling collegians, with Matuella, Kirby, Fullmer, Aitken (if he counts), Buehler and Funkhouser, among others. I could definitely see a split, a prep with the other first rounder. Either way we should have the money for a few overslots too.
What I've hear is the Yanks are in a good spot because the very top of the draft is a little light.
I look at spending as the ability to kill it in the draft even when they were really good and picked at the end of the round, or had forfeited high picks as a result of free agent compensation.
So that would enable them both to find uncovered upside and to spend overslot.
But they still brought in talent, even though it may not have been as much as they could have.
A problem apart from spending has been guys stagnate in the system, or like Hughes, need to go elsewhere to succeed.
That's what I need to see change to any hope at all. Right now, I have negative hope.
Yes, they have changed scouts, managers, instructors in the system, but the GM, the COO remains.
I think he is as big any obstacle to success as Hal.
I think an understated variable to drafting preps is determining their maturity level and projecting their body type.
When drafting a collegian, the players body has already matured and they've already lived away from home and endured a schedule with traveling.
When drafting a prep, the kids body are typically just entering puberty and most don't know how to fend for themselves. A lot more development is needed, which in terms leads to an increased risk due to variables that are impossible to predict.
The learning curve is steeper and it's critical that a prep has a great work ethic and the aptitude to learn the nuances of the game as well as adjust to living on their own & riding a bus 40+ hours a week.
Yes, that's true about preps. There are also a bunch that have signed for the money, when they just weren't ready, but wanted the money.
Hey guys, if you want to rage at your computer, check out the Yankees Propaganda Network, AKA YES Network, and their take on passing on Moncada.
So much wrong:
http://www.yesnetwork.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=38586783
Life's too short.
YES sucks. At least MSG has JB Smoove.
They could have a 5 year old broadcast Yankee games and people would still watch, albeit in the same declining numbers as is indicative of the recent trend.
So I watched it.
Chad Jennings thinks $13m is a lot to a multi-billion dollar corporation.
That's sad.
Your point about 18-20-year-olds is well taken in terms of numbers, but they have some good ones who've already advanced out of rookie ball and shown high-ceiling promise in Clarkin and Andujar, plus Torrens, de Carr, Mateo, Palma, Avellino, and Fowler, who have either shown promise in rookie ball or have advanced beyond rookie ball and are not busts. I'd be perfectly happy if they got three major leaguers out of that age group and that's not out of the range of possibility with the group just named.
I'd like to see them get more high-ceiling starting pitchers above all else right now, because none of the starters at the major league level except Eovaldi is without medical risk. Whether HS or college matters less to me than talent and durability.
Those guys are primarlly 20-21 this season.
And yeah, we need more starters.
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