A Month of Fundays

A New York Yankees, Giants, Knicks, Rangers and other stuff blog.


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Friday, December 19, 2014

Yanks Make the Deal Official

The Yanks have announced the deal with the Marlins, it's Martin Prado, David Phelps and Money for Nate Eovaldi, 1B-DH Garret Jones and minor league RHP Domingo German.   The Yanks have addd velo and youth to their organization, as well as another left handed batter to aim at the cheap seats.  Phelps had a bulldog mentality, but, unfortunately not a bulldog body.  Prado was over 30 and blocking kids, though still a relatively good player.   Yanks threw in for Prado's salary and that's probably how they got German.

Really like this deal for the Yanks.   Seems like they're keeping both first round picks.

7 Comments:

At 11:42 AM, Blogger Lawyer in NJ said...

So ideally (which almost never happens, but still), the rotation in mid-August is:

Tanaka
Pineda
Eovaldi
Severino
Nova

The offense will still probably blow, but if the above happens and all are idiosyncratically progressing, the season will have been a success.

 
At 11:50 AM, Blogger Mike in Mississippi said...

Eovaldi has a career 3.70 FIP and 0.6 HR9 is nice, though he obviously surrendered a lot of hits last year. On the bright side, he did cut his BB9 almost in half between 2013 and 2014.

 
At 11:58 AM, Blogger Mike in Mississippi said...

Oh, and Eovaldi had a .327 BABIP last season.

Garrett Jones has some pop but doesn't hit for a high average. Have to think they see him as a guy who plays pretty regularly, especially when Teixeira inevitably gets hurt and/or if A-Rod shows he can't get it done.

The numbers have certainly been there for the prospect, Domingo German.

 
At 12:09 PM, Blogger Mike in Mississippi said...

Saw this posted on NYYFans Forums, and this excerpt should give Yankee fans hope:

http://www.fishstripes.com/2014/12/17/7409563/miami-marlins-nathan-eovaldi-trade-rumors-starting-pitcher-comparison

The argument here is not that Eovaldi is a better player than Cosart. The scouting information on both players is important to give context to these numbers as well. We know that Eovaldi has weaknesses, but we also know that Eovaldi has significant strengths as well. The same can be said for Cosart, whose stuff has struggled to induce whiffs much like Eovaldi but who also has elite ground ball material. If we put the information all together, you might get an estimate of each guy that is not all that dissimilar. Based on my analysis, I think Eovaldi is slightly better than Cosart, but it would not be by much.

The problem is that the Marlins are not using all the information. They are not looking at Eovaldi's strong trends in walk rate. They are ignoring the fact that, over the last three years, he has upped his strikeout rates to acceptable levels. They ignored Cosart's poor performance in 2013, when he walked more guys than he struck out. They saw his shiny ERA, especially in the first month, and ignored that his numbers fell back the following month to his typical levels. You can bet that the Marlins' brass has strongly ignored the numbers that predict future performance better and relied rather strongly on cursory glances at ERA and their own scouting judgments.

This is why, when you have three guys with comparable statistics and overall performance, the team can still call one essentially untouchable and the other eminently available. There is a disconnect between the truth in the numbers and the opinion of the Marlins' brass. They seemingly have made an opinion on Eovaldi despite the statistical support against that opinion, and now the focus has been solely on his negatives. Likewise, they've made an opinion on Cosart and the focus is only on his positives and not his negatives.

This is a problem, and not just in a potential Eovaldi trade, but in all player personnel decisions. The Marlins' continued ignorance to proper statistical evaluation could cost them badly in future transactions. One Eovaldi trade may not doom the franchise, just like one Gordon deal may not. But over time, these smaller transaction "losses" could certainly add up. This remains one of the largest concerns under the new Michael Hill / Dan Jennings regime in Miami.

 
At 12:21 PM, Blogger Lawyer in NJ said...

It's worth the risk. Phelps has intermittent elbow issues and is no longer really young, although he is steady and a gamer, and Prado's recent trendlines, despite his SSS success in NY, make him a bad fit for a limited offense that has few players who can SLG, and he plays one of the few positions where they have young options.

He would have been perfect for their teams of 5+ years ago.

I go to NYYFans once or twice a year. It's like a ghost town in that very few people from the old days are left.

 
At 12:33 PM, Blogger Mike in Mississippi said...

I'm just thrilled (and simultaneously surprised) that they're actually going to give Refsnyder a shot right out of the gate this season. And if there's one thing on the Yankees' coaching staff that really seems to be working, it's Rothschild's work with the starters.

I peruse their boards every now and then when I have time to kill, and I know what you mean.

 
At 1:07 PM, Anonymous yankyfan said...

MK Im with you but don't get to up yet because there is talk of them signing Cabrera.

 

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