Yankee Draft: Bats

It's almost unthinkable, but the Yanks have had real trouble, for DECADES, finding bats in the Draft.  The reason this is almost unthinkable is before the institution of the Rule 4 draft back in the sixties, the Yanks found every single bat.  Of course, George Weiss wouldn't let them sign the African-American hitters they found, when he was GM from `47-`60, but legendary Yankee scouts like Tom Greenwade knew the players and wanted to sign them.  That, of course, lead to the collapse of the Third Dynasty.

As of right now, the greatest hitters the Yanks have ever drafted have been Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bobby Murcer, Fred McGriff and Don Mattingly (for awhile).  After that, you have to look at guys like Mike Lowell and such. The team that found Gehrig, DiMaggio and Mantle hasn't been able to find anywhere near their equals in just about 50 years of drafting.

It's both surprising and not surprising.  First, the Yanks have rarely had high picks  (where the best talent is) in the first round.   Second, many times they didn't have ANY first round picks (like this year!) due to free agent signings.  Finally, the Yanks have had periods where they were just indifferent to the draft and unwilling to spend.  These periods were basically when CBS owned them and most of the time that George Steinbrenner owned them and in on the spending side, during the Hal years as well.  Compounding all of this, even when they have found hitters, like Nick "OBP Jesus" Johnson, they've gotten injured and/or used in trades for pitching.

What's more, their current GM believes it all "starts and ends" with pitching.  So not only do they have the challenges of no high picks, and indifference, now that they're taking the draft seriously again (which started around 2005), Cashman favors pitching.

As we've mentioned over the years, the home parks and leagues in low A, high A and double A also favor pitching.   So it's harder for a Yankee prospect to put up gaudy hitting numbers than it would be in more run favorable environments.  MinorLeagueSplits has been a revelation with regard to these imbalances.

Around 2004 when they took Phil Hughes with a first rounder, they started to take the draft a little more seriously.  They're commitment to the draft really gained traction in `05 and `06.  Where they found Brett Gardner and a lot of pitching.  Since then, the Yanks have continued to add guys who are good at finding hitters to and back to their scouting staff.

For awhile they threw a bunch of darts at Brett Gardner types, who were fast OF's, with some on base but little power.  Now this is great if you're picking for the 1980's Cardinals (and Willie McGee was a Yankee draft pick) and plan to play on carpet, but it's not great if you're going to play most of your games in the Northeast.

Starting around 2009, when they picked Slade Heathcott first and John Ryan Murphy second, they've been solving their prep bats problem.  Of course the guy they really wanted in 2009, Mike Trout, didn't make it to them, and to make matters even more painful, he was taken with their pick.   Anyway, though they didn't get him, he has been the model they've tried to pursue with their prep picks, and they have taken some guys with signs of life like Tyler Austin (Nick Johnson type wrist crap in AA), Ben Gamel, Greg Bird, Jake Cave, Bubba Jones,  Nate Mikolas, Chris Breen, Dustin Fowler and a few others.   A few of these guys might turn out to be Yankee regulars.   Murphy if they let him, Slade and Austin, if they can stay healthy, as well as Bird and Cave, who look like the real deal at 1B and CF.

During this time, they also drafted Mason Williams.  Williams and Heathcott play CF about as well as Gardner and Ellsbury, but with better arms.   That's how good they both are at defense.   No positional bopping around, just the straight truth as OF's.    Heathcott's problems have been health and style of play recklessness.  Mason's problems have sort of been recklessness, too.   He broken up periods of heroic play with insane slumps, dogging it on the base paths and a DUI.   Williams was supposed to be a ringer who would fly through the system, but his bat and his attitude are holding him back.

I'm not sure if Mason's bat is symptomatic of his life stuff, or just another dagger in the heart of the Yankee development system.  This guy looked like the absolute goods when they got him.

Just a little more about the Prep Bats the Yanks have taken.

Because the Yanks pick so late, they've had to cast a wider net looking for talent.  In so doing, they have searched the hinterlands, and this has lead to picks like Cito Culver.  Now, the problem with Cito (who had a big game last night) and seems to have the Yankee Walk Gene, is that because he's from the Northeast, he was missing a couple of thousand at bats by the time they drafted him.  That requires a massive amount of catching up, and there's just no time once you hit the minors.   Likewise, Dante Bichette Jr. who also had a huge game last night, was a really serious tennis player for awhile, and that cost him AB's.  And of course, Austin Jackson was a great baseball player at 12, then played a lot of basketball between then and when the Yanks finally drafted him.   He also missed AB's.   And his major league batting numbers have been downright strange.

So, in general, the Yanks should probably avoid picking preps from cold places or with experience gaps.  It's too hard to catch up at the minor league level, even with the Tampa complex and all the coaches.  Unless, of course, it's a Mike Trout level HoF talent.

Lately, the Yanks have made better forays into the world of collegiate bats.  If the Yanks had tried and true development guys on the hitting side, Preps would be the way to go, since you're getting them on wood bats younger and have 6 years to get them to the bigs at 24 (which is still older than I like for rooks).   With college guys you have only 2 or three years till they're 24.   And, presumably,  it's easier to teach a kid than a man how to do things like take walks.   But there's no evidence on the Yankee Development side that they care about walks or know how to teach the value of an out.    This is a really big problem with the system and why Pete O'Brien might end up being Jeff Francouer instead of something better.

Off my soapbox.

After taking Brett Gardner in 2005, the Yanks took what were supposed to be good college bats like Brad Suttle and Damon Sublett, but they were always hurt. And David Adams, who was looking like a player also had a catastrophic ankle injury which as of now has destroyed most of his value.  That's really sad, because he would have helped.

In the last few years, perhaps starting with the Kyle Roller pick in 2010, the Yanks have gotten either a little savvier or a little luckier with their college bats.  Roller is knocking at the door of a call up or a trade, and guys like Peter O'Brien (needs walks), Rob Refsnyder and Taylor Dugas all look like they could add something to a major league lineup, if not complete Yankee Bats.   Last year, when they had three first rounders,  they spent 2 on college bats, Eric Jagielo (who's been both bad and good at high A) and Aaron Judge (who'd been good, but not showing power in low A and needs a promotion).

They also took slotty college bats like Michael O'Neill, John Murphy and Brandon Thomas, who all come with AA and defense and suspect bats so far.

So going into this draft our chances of getting a real Yankee Bat are low from the get go and picking 56th doesn't improve our chances.

Having said that, here are some things they should not do:

1) Draft players from other sports or climates that have cost them childhood AB's.

2) Draft guys with bats but no positions. This complicates development and really seems to flummox management.

3) Draft guys who are vastly more athlete than player.

4) Draft fast guys expecting them to learn to hit.

If they can avoid some of these things - their bugaboos of the past - they might give themselves a better chance at finding useful parts.

They only need to find one or two per draft to justify the entire expense.