Rangers Win 2-1!

What a tense one.   It was scoreless in the first, but Dan Carcillo finally broke the ice off a beautiful pass from MZA.   Seriously, the two passes that lead to the Ranger goals tonight were awesome.   Later in the second period, Benoit Pouliot, who'd earlier taken yet another penalty, scored off a beautiful pass from Brassard.  Then they sort of shut it down.  I swear, Henrik Lundqvist turns down more shutouts than any Ranger goalie I've ever seen.  He allowed another in the first 5 minutes of the third and they had to hang on from there, as Philly grabbed the momentum.  Anything can happen in game 7's, and even Dan Carcillo's can be heroes, and he was tonight.   Huge win.  Nash and St. Louis were pointless.    They'll have to do better against Pittsburgh if we want a chance.  Let's go, Rangers!

Giants Draft: Upside

Around this time of year, you hear a lot of talk about certain players who have upside and those who are more finished projects.  This expresses the idea that a player has the ability to get better or much better after he's picked.  Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't.   In general, the younger the player the more upside he has and that's because he's reached a draftable talent level at a younger age than the majority of his draft class.  That's a pretty straightforward proposition.  Hakeem Nicks turned pro at 20 or 21 and was a great player by 22.

That's why a lot of teams like to draft Juniors, because of the expectation of more physical/talent development.  Of course, you still have to look at the ages.  They are pretty cockamamie in pro sports now for three reasons.  First, parents of precociously athletic kids often hold them back a year so they can stick out even more in prep sports - making them a year older than they would normally be during each collegiate year.

The other issue is red-shirting.   That's when kids go to college and get red shirted for their Freshman years, meaning they can't play or practice with the team, but are expected tot get bigger and stronger. Then as collegiate Sophomores they become red-shirt Freshman on the field.  This makes them 22 or 23 as a "junior."

Also, there's the issue of college transfers where they make you sit out a year or junior college transfers who often lose a year in the translation.

All of this amounts to an inordinate number of 24 year olds in the NFL Draft each year.   In general, those guys have less upside than the younger kids.  But, at the same time, they become undervalued as college Seniors are in all sports.  

In general, OL's, DT's, and QB's are the best senior picks.  That's because OL and DT are size positions, so the Seniors have had more time to grow, as well as more experience.    QB's are the other one.   There have been an inordinate number of Junior QB's who came out early and did not make it like they might have.  Mark Sanchez is a great example of that.  That probably has to do solely with experience and having the age to command older teammates.

At other positions, true Juniors almost always have more upside.

But getting back to this elusive idea of upside, some picks are for now and some are for the future.   In 2010 the Giants hit the jackpot when they took JPP in the first round over some older, more experienced pass rushers.  That was a brilliant pick that, until injuries and weight piled up, looked like an all time Giant pick.

They were able to swing for the fences then because everyone's job was still pretty secure from SB 42, and they had enough pass rushers to spend some time developing JPP.

But even though the Giants are still pretty close to Superbowl 46, they cannot afford to swing for the fences in this one. They've had too many bad picks over the past few years, and Eli is not getting any younger.  

So this will have to be a high floor draft, like we had in 2007 (and boy, did that pay immediate dividends).   Though Bradshaw was by far our best pick, and DeOssie is the only one who is still around.

At this point, the Giants need a better draft than they had in 2007, and picking 12th they should be probably be able to have one, but they can't swing for the fences till day there, if even then, because they have too many roster problems as a result of poor drafts, injuries and free agent defections.

Fortunately, OL is still job one, and they should be able to accomplish it.

Pineda Out 3 or 4 Weeks

Suspended starter Michael Pineda injured a back muscle while pitching a simulated game, and will miss 3-4 more weeks even after his suspension ends.   This puts a lot of pressure on the other pitchers, with Phelps likely to stay in the rotation from now.  What's more, Bryan Mitchell, the next high upside guy in the minors is also on the DL.  In some good news,  Manny Banuelos was promoted to Trenton as his rehab continues.

Rangers Game 7

Huge game, obviously, but a really good team shouldn't have to go to game seven against the Flyers.  And a team that does have to go 7 against the Flyers has no business spending multiple high picks on 38 year old mighty mite scorers.  So with all the pressure the player are probably feeling, tonight will also be a referendum on a bunch of questionable management decisions.  That said, it's  not a perfect results machine because the Rangers have been without Kreider, that's not management's fault.   Let's go, Rangers!

On To Game Seven

I'm as surprised as anyone over the Rangers no-show against a mediocre Flyer team tonight.  Hank was not elite.   And it's time he play like an 8 million dollar goalie in the post season.  Anyway, the Rangers must win game 7, and even going 7 against the Flyers shows the team was damn foolish to take the St.Louis deal instead of the San Jose deal.  Pretty sure we could have taken the Flyers to seven in any case,  even if we'd kept Callahan.     And it all started South when Pouliot took yet another lunkheaded penalty in the first.

Knicks: The Return of Mr. Bill?

Can Larry Demic and Sly Williams be far behind?    Apparently, Bill Cartwright has interviewed with Phil Jackson and is believed to be Steve Kerr's top choice for first lieutenant.    Cartwright out of USF was the Knicks pick in the Magic draft of 1979.   He was a great rookie scorer, though not a great rebounder or defender.   He was part of that duplicative Twin Towers era when it was Cartwright and Webster then Cartwright and Ewing and then Cartwright was traded for Oakley and the Knicks started playing sluggo ball.  Deadly turn around jumper from the low post.   I was at a game, during his rookie year, when he put up 38 or 40 against the Suns at MSG.  Always a team guy, even back then, his interviews were about the team.   We'll see if this works out.

The Knicks and Steve Kerr

Stories are starting to circulate that the Knicks are finalizing a deal with Steve Kerr that will be announced after round 1 of the NBA Playoffs has concluded.   Presumably, the job is to be their new head coach, though Kerr only has experience as a GM and the Knicks need one of those, too.   Since Kerr has no experience as a coach, the most we can say about this is, it's intriguing.   Jackson has said they are philosophically close on basketball, and I'd guess the team concept.   Kerr has played in the triangle, and has played for three legendary coaches, so we'll see what he can do.  Remember, Phil got his head coaching start with a Albany Patroons of the mid-80 -- and the way the Knicks are currently constructed, they're not a heck of a lot different than the `85 Patroons.  

I don't really understand why a deal has to wait till the end of the first round, unless the rumor is true and Kerr wants to see if the closer to home Golden State job opens up for him.   I think that would be foolish,  since, if he wants to be a coach, he's not going to get a better mentor than Phil Jackson.  Anyway, it looks like it will be Kerr, and it will be interesting to see if he has coaching ability.

Giants Draft: Ebron Not a Consideration?

Jordan Raanan, one of the newer beat guys is saying the Giants are not interested in Eric Ebron at 12 and prefer Zack Martin to Taylor Lewan among the OL's.   Now this might be pre-draft smoke -- though the Giants haven't really engaged in much of that since George Young used to toy with reporters (remember Jerry Evans from Toledo?)    But if it is true, it means the Giants are using their brains.

Coming into the process, I like Ebron a lot.  And I still think he can be a weapon for a team, but that team has to already have a plus OL.  Ebron is no inline blocker at this point, so if you need him to work two ways -- he can't.   He might eventually become blocker, he's naturally strong, but the Giants aren't especially in position to draft him.  Also, there'a a really fast TE most years, and the first round really isn't where a lot of the pro bowl TE's are coming from.

Having said that, the Giants do need a better bet at TE than Robinson and Donnelly, so they probably will pop one, and possibly as early as round 2.

In order to pick a TE, most likely Troy Niklas in round 2, they will have had to go OL in round one.   If they pick Evans or Donald in round one, they have to get Nevada OL Joel Bitonio in 2.

That's the calculus.  If they take  Martin at 12, they can then go with a TE in 2 or pick from the abundance of big, strong wide outs that should be available.   If they take Niklas -- which I sort of think they should -- they have to hope one of the big strong WR's falls to them in round 3, and they probably will.

Then in round four and five they can pick up ND Guard Chris Watt, as well as one of those 210 pound all around backs and a rotational pass rusher. We're getting closer.

Rangers Tonight

Tonight, the Rangers get their first chance to eliminate the Flyers, if they lack a killer instinct, it's onto a game 7 where anything can happen.   Hank has to be elite.  Nash and MSL have to be deadly.  No defensive lapses.  And let's finally start getting the bounces.   Let's go, Rangers!

Giants Sign QB Rusty Smith

The Giants, today, added another camp arm when the signed former Titan Rusty Smith.   Smith got some buzz coming out of Florida Atlantic during the 2005 draft, but he's really just been a back up, and he may or may not be able to beat out the other backups.   Seems like they want a lot of arms so that more player can work on the new O at any given time.

UPDATE:  So this apparently happened because Curtis Painter had knee surgery on Friday and it's a 4 week turnaround.   Thus, Smith is another arm for OTA's.

This Week on the Blog

Should be a good one, as we get even closer to the NFL Draft.   Meanwhile our four teams have a lot cooking.

Yankees:  We'll see if Tanaka can keep it going and if full blown Tanaka-mania starts.  Phelps is picking up the first missed Pineda start and we'll see how long he can go.   We're already running into roster problems and had to let a pretty good prospect go in Nik Turley.  That's got to be watched and a trade for an infielder or starter could still happen.

Giants:  They're still getting ready for the draft and I'll continue writing about what's worked for them and what hasn't in drafts.

Knicks:  Phil Jackson either has or will meet with Steve Kerr any minute now, so the Knicks could have a new coach or a continued search.  He's also looking for more execs and we'll see how that goes.

Rangers:  We'll see if the Rangers can finish off Philly, hopefully in 6 and dreadfully in 7.  They cannot win the Cup by playing a bunch of 7 games series, as we learned 2 years ago.  But LGR!

And that should be about it for the week.  Go Teams!

Rangers Win 4-2

JT Miller was activated for game four, had an assist and the Rangers won.  This should have been a lot more fun to watch, but the refs allowed the Flyers to engage in their traditional gooney while penalizing the Rangers for non-fouls.  I have no idea if they are ordered to keep games close, but this should not have been a close one.  Staal scored in the first, then Richards and Dom Moore, scored in the second, then the refs got involved, and the Flyers scored on a PP at the end of the second.  They scored again in the third, but Boyle sealed it with an empty netter.  The fourth line has really been chipping in and it's good to see.   Let's see if we can finish this in 6.  LGR!

Yanks: JR Delivers!

John Ryan Murphy, as he prefers to be called, had a two run single and a game winning homer today at the stadium.   The Yanks got another good start from Nuno, though he gave up a homer to Trout to start the game.   The Yanks were dying to draft Trout back in the day, and are no doubt sickened by the fact that the Angels took him with their original pick.  But three of their picks did come through today, as Murphy was this hitting star, Betances got the win and Robertson got the save.  Nice day for the farm at the Stadium.  Big win.  Now, let's take the series tomorrow.

Giants Draft: Power Receivers

As I mentioned in the WR discussion a week or two ago, there are a couple of different groups of WR's in this draft.   Basically there are groups of big, strong outside receivers, stellar slot guys, and outside speed guys.

History shows us the Giants should do their shopping in the big, strong outside guys.  Firstly, they already have the best slot guy in the game in Cruz, and another possible slot playmaker in Jernigan.   So the depth at slot is fine and that kind of player should not be a BPA for the Giants at any point.  As fort outside power guys -- like pass rushers --  you can't have enough if you're the Giants.   Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress and Hakeem Nicks were all great Giants (well Plax was till he went against everything the Giants are about).   Randle is currently the only strong outside guy we have, and he's been pretty unimpressive.  Could be a late bloomer, like Toomer, but you can't bet that way.

So somewhere in the draft the Giants should try to get a power guy for that other outside spot.   There are several to choose from including Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Davante Adams,  Donte Moncrief,    Jordan Matthews, Cody Latimer and others.   There are; however, two who should be avoided and they are Kelvin Benjamin and Martavis Bryant.  Both are big and talented, but both are also primitive and with Randle's lack of development, we would run the risk of having our two outside guys running into each other downfield if we took either of those guys.

Some of the big power guys might have slightly limited route trees they can execute, but it's supposed to be a simpler offense, so it shouldn't be too challenging for one of them to get on the field and produce, then if Randle finally steps up, we'll have two power outside guys for the first time, and that should work spectacularly.

Giants: Drafting for Want

The NFL draft is a lot like grocery shopping.   Teams, including the Giants, should go to the draft with a list, drawn from a board that is only made up of the type of players they've always won with, come out with what they want, instead of what others think they need.  They should choose only from the brands they trust and not waste room in the cart on things they haven't tried or that haven't worked for them in the past.

The other day,  I showed you how BPA failed when the Giants used it to pick players that don't fit what they run -- like 3-4 LB's.  What they did a little bit better last year, and I am hoping they do again this year, is take a bunch of Giants type players.

To review:

In round one, the Giants took a totally Giant-like School of Suebert/Snee OL in Justin Pugh.

In the second, they took a huge, surprisingly athletic Nose Tackle to eventually replace Linval Joseph, whom they had won with.

In the third, they took an edge rusher with good collegiate production in DaMontre Moore.  Tuck had been a third rounder.   Moore might be a better pure edge rusher, but looks more like a joker than the kind of guy who can produce from a DT spot like Tuck did.  More like an Osi, but definitely a Giant-type 4-3 pass rusher.

In the fourth, they made a questionable move.   They traded up in the round to take QB Ryan Nassib. Now these mid round trade ups for red chip guys has not worked out of the Giants in the past.  Having said that, on tape Nassib reminded me of Simms and his Wonderlic was even better than Eli's, so he probably is Giant type.

In the 5th, they took Cooper Taylor, a big athletic safety like they thought they were  getting with  Chad Jones.   Great for their version of the big nickel.

In the 7th, they took Eric Herman, a big, top heavy developmental guard for Ohio, and Michael Cox a fastish, surdyish RB who didn't play much in college.  Herman has spent the offseason with Snee and Pugh, so we'll see if he's taken to the sacred teachings.   Cox should probably be replaced on the roster.

So, other than the trade up, which I don't like to see in the red chip areas of drafts, it was what a Giant draft should be like-- full of Giant-like picks.

So here's what the Giants should want this year.   First they need to be bound and determined to fix the OL. so they need to either throw 2 of their 7 picks at the OL, or trade down and get more picks, so they can throw 3 at OL.  Remember the Giants haven't picked a starting OL outside the first two rounds since 2003.  So one or both should be high picks.  They have to be versatile, so they offer the Giants multiple options during the re-build.

Second, they should want some more pass rush.   This is something they should want every year, and they can either get it from an edge guy or a 3 tech DT.  I don't want them fixing this before they fix the OL, but they might.

Tied for second, they should want a power receiver.  Someone to replace most, if not all of the Hakeem Nicks production, so it should be a strong receiver with great instincts.

Next, they should take an inline TE who can also contribute as a receiver.   If they take Niklas, they'd probably have to do it in the second, but he'd fit and he also improves Eli's protection.  Otherwise, they should want to find another block/pass guy.

They should want to throw a pick at a 4-3 weakside OLB or at least a guy who can really play it.   A guy like Armstead, not conversions or projections.

They should want another RB who move the chains, catch and pass protect.

And they might want another athletic DB.

But they shouldn't push anything and this is a year when they should not want to trade up.

So that's it.  They should remove all 3-4 LB's, all 1 position OL's, all Hbacks, all slight wr's, all 1 tech  DT's from their lists, stack them and pick away.  They cannot afford to screw this up.

Rangers Tonight

Big game.  The Rangers can take a commanding lead.   Mason is back in net for the Flyers, but that should not stop them.   They need to play with urgency, and no more stupid penalties, Pouliot.    Absolutely huge game.   Let's go, Rangers!

Yanks Clock Boston 14-5

CC was terrific going 6 innings of 3 hit, 2 run 8K ball.  Shane Greene was not as good in his major league debut, going 1/3 and giving up 3 runs. It didn't matter, the Yanks scored 14.   Usually when that happens, the team from New England is allowed to pass interfere.   Not tonight.   And the Yanks weren't even terribly efficient and left a bunch of guys on base.   Tex even homered, which is a great sign.   Still waiting on Ellsbury.   There should be more roster shuffling tomorrow. but great performance from reduced stuff CC.    Big win.  

Pineda Suspended for 10 Games

The league has apparently suspended Michael Pineda for last night's pine tar incident.   He'll probably appeal it down to 8 if he is aware that he has a right to appeal.   Anyway, they'll have to make up at least a start from somewhere and it could be Bryan Mitchell, which would be more fun than seeing them try to stretch out Phelps and Warren after all of their short work.

Giants :10 Years of Eli

On the 10th anniversary of the trade that made Eli Manning a Giant, he's busy, finally learning a new offense.   This is a good time to point out that he's gone largely unappreciated, just as Phil Simms did and the way to tell how unappreciated they are is in the time it takes to replace them.    Both of them have played their home games in the Meadowlands -- Phil in Giants stadium and Eli in both Giants and MetLife.  I really don't think the effects of those two stadia have been adequately accounted for in QBR and the like.   Another way to think about how tough it is, is that the Jets have never had longterm success with a QB in either stadium.     It's takes a tough guy, who can take the pounding of the turf, and has enough arm to cut through the swirling winds.

Kerry Collins had a Giants stadium arm, and a 10 cent brain.   He embarrassed himself in Superbowl 35.  Simms and Eli have been MONEY on the only stage that matters in conditions that must have seemed like beach days relative to their experiences in the Meadowlands.

So next time you're banging on Eli for not having great fantasy stats, remember how tough his job is. And the proof will come when we have to replace him.    Let's hope he brings us another SB or two before we do.

Yanks Play Poorly and Lose

Michael Pineda got ejected for having pine tar on his neck in the middle of the second inning.   And that was after he had a terrible first inning where he was squeezed, gave up 2 runs and threw over 30 pitches.  It wasn't helping!   The Yanks answered the Red Sox manager's sicking the umps on their pitcher by rolling over for John Lackey and his 92 mile an hour fastball.   They're not going to beat many teams if they can't turn on 92...

Meanwhile. Pineda will be suspended, it will be interesting to see for how long.    Just a terrible effort all around tonight, and Girardi did nothing to get back at the Farrell, who's pitchers have been caught by the cameras a lot.    Gutless.

Giants Draft: Choosing Into the Strength of a Draft

Every year drafts are deep and strong across various positions.  Unless it's illusory like the 2003 DT class, or, perhaps this year's QB class, it's a great idea to draft into the strength of the draft.   When there is real depth you can get long term starters in and outside of the first round of the draft.   Let's take the 1996 WR class for example. Keyshawn, Terry Glenn, Marvin Harrison and Eddie Kennison were first rounders, Amani Toomer, Alex Van Dyke, Mushin Muhhamed and Bobby Engram were second rounders.   TO was a third rounder,  and Joe Horn was a 5th rounder, with lots of solid WR's in between.  So there was WR value all over that draft.

The Giants drafted into that strength and took Amani Toomer.  They had blown their first round pick on Cedric Jones, and Amani saved that draft.

They drafted into strength when they took Pugh last year, too.   Part of the reason this works so well, is they are almost never stacked correctly when they are all at least "good."  So, if you have the advantage of know what works for you,  you can get a long term starter, like Toomer or Pugh.

Now I'll give you two examples of why you shouldn't draft into the limits of a draft.   In 1998, because of injuries to Ike Hilliard and Toomer, the Giants needed more WR's.   In fact they wanted at least two.  So with their pick they took Joe Jurevicius, and then feeling that the WR's were running out, they traded up for Brian Alford, who earned the nickname 50/50 in practice because those were his chances of catching anything thrown to him.

In 2002, after trading up one spot for Jeremy Shockey, the Giants traded back into the third round and took OT Jeff Hatch, because they believed he was the last Left Tackle in the draft.   And he was a disaster.

So when there is true depth you will really see it all over, and when there is true limitation, you will see it in the form of teams grabbing at the illusory depth and taking guys who can't play at positions of need like Brian Alford and Jeff Hatch.

Thus unless you're scouts are really good at beating needed talent out of the bushes, it's best to draft into the strength of drafts and not reach into a drafts weakness with a projection.

I'll talk tomorrow about where I see the strength in this year's draft.

Knicks: Jax Hopes Carmelo Will Stay for Less

Phil spoke again today.   The biggest news was that he and Carmelo had talked about Carmelo staying for less so that Phil could build around him.   Other stars with rings have done it, and Action Jackson said that's the only way he could keep Melo.  And he said the Knicks would go forward either way.

He also said picking the coach could take some time and that he's looking for a leader.    Further he said he was still filling out the front office and acknowledged the hiring of Gaines.    Personally I thought they'd name a coach quickly. But, since they don't have any games on the horizon, this is fine.  Ron Harper is coming in to meet about a coaching position -- and man was that guy great before he blew out his knee.

How refreshing is Phil's openness?

Rangers Re-Take Series Lead

Wow, were the refs ever awful tonight.    And really does NHL feel Goon Central is a better brand for them than the Rangers?   Imbeciles.   Anyway,  Stepan scored in the first from MSL and Nash, then MSL scored and we had another 2 goal lead.  Just like Sunday they allowed the Flyers back in the game.  But unlike Sunday, Dan Girardi scored the games third goal in second from Richards and Hags.   Then things got out of hand as the refs did everything in there power to try to get Philly back into it.   Suspensions should be forthcoming.  Oh and those great Flyer fans actually cheered when Dan Carcillo went down after taking a slap shot to the throat.   He was later cheap shotted by Reid, but got the best of both the Flyer and their sickening fans (and I know it's not all of them), when he scored the Rangers fourth goal of the night in the third, from Boyle.   Huge win.  Hank stopped all but 1 of 32 Flyer shots and a terrific performance.   Let's take game 4.  LGR!

Tanaka Tames The Sox

Masahiro Tanaka was pretty dominant, except to two hitters in the fourth inning, both misfits of science who homered back to back.   But those two homers were all he gave up as he cruised through 7.1 striking out 7 and scattering 7 hits.   He was once again getting squeezed once a bit.   Also, we have to remember that McCann is learning the AL, two, and you can't just keep calling fastballs with a 4-0 which is what the Yanks had when Tanaka had the hiccup.  His fastball topped out at 95 tonight, which probably means it was warmer than last week when his velo was down.  Though he did change speeds again.  

Ellsbury, lead off the game with a fan interference triple which should have been an inside the parker, and Jeter singled him home, the Yanks never relinquished the lead or really even came close to doing so.   Everyone but Solarte was hitting tonight, and Beltran added another bomb as the Yanks scored 9.

Dellin Betances pitched the final 1.2 and gave up his first run of the season.  His ERA is now .93.   And Girardi still won't give him more work.  

Yanks take the opener 9-3.  Tanaka get his 3rd win and his first ever at Fenway.   Let's see if Pineda can once again hold serve tomorrow.   Go Yanks!

Yanks: Vidal Nuno "Officially" Named #5 Starter

The Yanks have "officially" named Vidal Nuno their #5 starter.    While that is fine and it's probably at least official for this next go round, I'd prefer that they not make that pronouncement.   He should be on a start to start leash and they should be hoping to upgrade from the system.  With Robertson back they should send Phelps down to the minors to stretch back out.   Oh well.  It's almost Tanaka Time, so enjoy!

Surgery Recommended for Nova

The Yanks say the Nova met with doctors and had an MRI.  The diagnosis of a partially torn UCL was confirmed and surgery has been recommended.    So that will probably put him out for the year.  The Yankees will probably mix and match for awhile, and then could make a trade.  What I'd prefer they do is mix and match and try to get Bryan Mitchell ready to step into the rotation in a month or two.   Mitchell pitches for Trenton tonight.

Giants Should Extend Prince Amukamara

The Giants should extend Prince Amukamara even if Will Hill wins his appeal.  But since he probably won't it's even more important to extend Prince.   He's been playing well for the past few years, regardless of what broadcasters and print morons have sometimes said.   He's a physical run force corner who has a great burst and covers well.  He doesn't get a lot of turnovers.  So who does he remind you of that was a Giant CB for two championships?  Right, he's Mark Collins Mark II.   So the reason they should especially do it now, with Will Hill's future up in the air, is that it would lock down both corner spots for the foreseeable, and allow the Giants to use a pick this year and maybe next on Safeties.   So, because we are losing a playmaker in Hill,  we should establish cost certainty at corner, so we can spend more picks looking for Hill's replacement.   If we're lucky, it's Cooper Taylor.

Rangers Playoffs Tonight

The Rangers have been road warriors all year, and tonight they have to do it again.   Due to their lack of urgency after their second goal on Sunday, they have lost home ice and are in danger  of falling behind.   Can't happen.  Hank needs to be elite, the D has to be sharp and the shooters have to stop aiming at the Flyer Goalie.   Let's go, Rangers!

Giants Stuff

Will Hill, one of the best young players on the Giants looks like he's headed for another suspension.  Apparently, he'll appeal, but the Giants just can't count on this guy, which is sad both ways, because he really is one of their best players.

In other, better Giants news, JPP says he's back down to 270 and Justin Pugh says he gained 10 pounds which should put him at 314 or 315.   For now.   JPP getting his weight back to where it was was huge.    He's had a gut during each of the last two years, and that isn't good weight to carry around if you're anyone, let alone a pro athlete.

Giants Draft: BPA?

BPA stands for Best Player Available.   This is the way the Giants have long said they draft.   Thus, when Prince Amukamara fell a few years ago, they had to take him because he was better than anyone else in their window.   BPA is frustrating to pundits who can only construct mock drafts projecting needs that the pundit may be projecting on the team.   For years and years, before he stopped doing his fun draft book, Mel Kiper Jr. would melt down because the Giants didn't take a linebacker high.    The one time they did, it was Sintim,   Eek.    And of course there was NO WAY Clint Sintim was the BPA when they were making their first round pick that year.  Max Unger, who's been to pro bowls probably was.

Anyway, this also may bring up the flaw in BPA.  As we've discussed, the Giants play of 4-3 defense. Sintim was a 3-4 LB who did not fit it.  Now, it's conceivable that he was the BPA on their board -- but the fact is, Clint Sintim should never have even been on the Giants board.  Their 2010 board should have existed as if he didn't.

Here's why: each good NFL team that wins titles has an identity; a formula by which they have won.   Thus any team like that -- if they are going to draft "BPA" -- should really only mean they will draft BPA for them, or more accurately Best Fit.   So they should only draft more the of the types of the players they've been winning with, and not worry about drafting anything else.   Bad teams should try to find players they can win with, but the winning programs need to stick with their scripts.

Years ago, Belichick boasted about how the Pats board had relatively few players on it and once they were done with those players,  they just trade their remaining picks.   That's a pretty good way to do, but I think their draft results are not so great, thus, their player definitions or talent recognition needs refinement.   I frankly think they sometimes go for players to the exclusion of athletes, and I think that's a big reason why we beat them in 42 and 46.  We had a better player model.

Still, there is wisdom in the Wesleyan Grad's thought process.  You don't need players who don't fit your scheme or success formula -- so why waste any more time scouting them, interviewing them or flying them around if they are not a fit.

I think the Giants board has been a little too big lately considering picks like Sintim, Beckum and Tracy, who all represented value where we we should not have been shopping.  Sintim and Tracy were 3-4 LB's, and Beckum was an HBack.   We've never won a Super Bowl where an HBack has played a valuable role in leading up to it or winning it.   Thus, they shouldn't even be on our board.  But all of them were.

What the Giants should spend some time doing this week if they haven't already, is get all of the non-Giant type players off of their board.  Thus they should remove all the 3-4 LB's, and all the HBacks for starters.   Assuming they'll use the same kind of OL play that they've won with, they'd also dump the guards who can't pull, and since they crave versatility they should dump the OL's who are only one thing.

Anyway, the only reason why I think the Giants board might be too big is because they've made some picks that just didn't fit the moment they were drafted.   And thus the BPA pick was as bad as a reach for need.  

The Giants need to double check this stuff.

Giants Begin Offseason Work

Offseason conditioning used to start in March and FA acquisitions would join it as they signed.  Now it's starting after the vast and huge number of free agents have signed and with all the new faces, it's gotta be a little weird.   I'm not sure the CBA would allow a mixer, but having one would probably help.  There are about 25 new guys.

They aren't all at the training center at the same time.   They probably do it by position groups, still there are new members in each group.  I hope the player leadership is good, because someone will have to take charge of each group and make sure everyone is comfortable and feels like part of the team.   That's an issue when you flip this many players.

There are also new coaches on the offensive side, though I'm not sure how much contact they are allowed to have with the players at this point.    But, next results were all starting to be determined with these workouts.  I hope it works out better than last season.

Woodson Fired

One ex-Knick draft pick has fired another, as Phil Jackson relieved Mike Woodson of his job.   The Knicks had diminishing returns with Woodson, and according to some of them, they didn't buy in to what he had to teach.   No successor has been named, but Steve Kerr seems like the only name in the mix.  In other news, the Knicks have added former Jordan era Bulls scout Clarence Gaines Jr., to an undesignated front office job.    Here we go.

This Week On The Blog

This should be another eventful week on the blog.


Giants:  The Giants begin their union allowable offseason workout schedule tomorrow.   God help any of of the guys who haven't been staying in shape.  And not participating has never seemed to help anyone, miss ya, Hakeem.

Yanks:  The Yanks young aces will face their next tests Tuesday and Wednesday in Boston.  Hopefully, they'll keep making adjustments, getting more efficient and going deeper.   David Robertson will return.   Nuno has probably earned another start in Nova's place, so Mitchell will probably go down for DRob.  I was kind of hoping he's get a start.   And we could always see a trade for a 3B or something.

Rangers:  The Rangers are now in a battle for their lives as the series heads to Philly.  That was just disgusting today, and no one can fathom why they refuse with win game two's.  If they win and keep doing it, they'll lose this year's first rounder.

Knicks:  The Jackson Era should start in ernest this week as they will probably turn  the page on Mike Woodson.  Steve Kerr and Jim Cleamons have both been mentioned and they might be the new coach and new assistant respectively.  It will be interesting to see if Herb Williams finally leaves the staff.  Non- fringe player moves will probably have to wait till July.

So, it should be interesting.

Yanks Win in 12

On a day when Mark Teixeira returned, so did Yankee pitching.  Vidal Nuno tossed scoreless and the pen only gave up 1 run over the next 7.   Dean Anna worked a bases loaded walk in the 12, to give the Yanks the 2-1 lead, then Beltran knocked in two more and Sori added another RBI, giving them their 5-1 final.

Phew.  They really needed the split, and Nuno was heroic in giving them a chance.   They're off tomorrow and there might be more roster work.  Robertson returns Tuesday when Tanaka will make his first Fenway start.

Rangers Lose Game 2

The Rangers must have thought that the Flyers would give up after the Rangers got off to a quick 2-0 first period lead.   But the Flyers did not give up.  The Rangers did and they will have to make a lot better effort to win this series and advance.   They made a back up goalie look elite and their elite goalie look average.   Happy Easter, just the same.

Tex Returns

Mark Teixeira was activated from the DL and Ivan Nova is on the DL with a partially torn UCL.   That will probably be season ending.   Meanwhile the Yanks also demoted Sizemore and DFA'd Daley.   We have to hope that Tex's bat can bounce back some, even though we have no reason to.    His premature decline remains one of the strangest things I'v ever seen and a very unlucky circumstance for the Yanks.

Yankees Call Up Bryan Mitchell

Tonight, the Yankees have called up Preston Claiborne from AAA and Bryan Mitchell from AA.   Claiborne you know about.  Mitchell you may not.   He's one of the Yankees best starter prospects and the reason he's being called up is probably that he is already on the 40.  Now, I hope to god, that Cash isn't thinking about turning him into another power reliever.  The kid can start, and K'd 12 in his last start.  He's got a great arm, and I have to wonder if he'll be taking Nova's starts.  It's unusual for them to call a guy from AA, but I'm for it as long as they're not turning him into more cannon fodder for the pen.

Nova Leaves With An Injury

Ivan Nova gave up 4 homers tonight and that was unusual for him, even given his extreme inconsistency.    What's worse is he left the game shaking his arm.   We'll have to find out what that is, but in any event I am sure they will DL and rehab him down in Florida.  Perhaps even giving him his annual lesson on how to pitch.  Whenever he does come back, I am pretty sure his Yankee career will end up with his being traded someplace while he still had value.   They must have learned something from hanging onto Hughes and Joba after they were ruined.

Giants Draft: It's Less Than 3 Weeks Away

Three weeks from now we'll be in Day 3 of the Giants All-Important 2014 Draft.   They are picking 12th and they desperately need to have a good one.   Why are they so desperate?  You've seen them play and looked at the roster.   You've watched them replace a bunch of assistant coaches.  You've watched their free agent spending spree.   Does any of that scream stability?  Of course, but the Giants are a team that values stability a great deal more than say, the Cleveland Brown,s who change coaches annually.   It's probably a good value to hold as an NFL team.    Free agents probably like coming to stable franchises, and you don't end up paying a bunch of coaches that are no longer working for you.   So the Giants want to get back to stable as quickly as possible.

They've also been a fairly mediocre regular season team during the Coughlin era. In fact, they haven't made the playoffs since they won Super Bowl 46.  Further, their Coughlin and Eli windows may be starting to close.   TC is heading toward 70 and Eli just had surgery.  What's more, Kevin Gilbride says Eli's had other procedures that haven't been publicized.

Thus it just behooves the Giants to try to get back in the playoffs and see if they can make a run this year.   With all they did in free agency, they only really signed a few guys who are more than bandaids.  One of them is Geoff Schwartz.   JD Walton is pencilled in as the starting Center next year, but he's basically coming out of retirement.   Jerry and Brown are bad at football.  So the OL still requires an upgrade.  Jennings should help at RB.

DRC was the big ticket and Thurmond is good, too, but on a one year deal and the rest are bandaids.  They did pick up some good return guys, and that should help.

Anyway there are jobs and starting jobs to be had from the draft this year.  And that brings me to my next point, and the reason why I think they will probably go OL instead of DL in round one.    Right now a lot of people are projecting Aaron Donald to the Giants.  I really like this player, but for this year and maybe his career, he's going to be a third down, passing down pass rush 3 tech.  The Giants are going to most likely start Johnathan Hankins at Nose or Over tackle, and I really doubt they will start a rookie next to him.   Especially not while they still have Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson rotating there.   Btw, whatever team takes Donald should be able to dress him right away because he runs well enough to cover kicks on specials and could be used in a bunch of the subs as a joker or inside rusher.

An OL at 12 will play a lot more.   OL's aren't rotational,  and as long as they don't take a tackle only, but a T-G, they should get a much needed building block for the line.  

There are several more 3 techs that could be available as the draft moves on like Tuitt and Easley, and I'm pretty sure they'll take one.  But I think they will get a guy who can be a 7 year or more every down  solution at 12.

Yanks: Cesar Cabral DFA'd Matt Daley On The Way

After last night's meltdown the Yanks DFA'd Cesar Cabral and called up Matt Daley.  Daley is not what we'd call a "canonical" Yankee, which is to say, he was not drafted into the organization  nor was he signed as a teenaged free agent.   Daley, who is from Queen and went to Bucknell, had been a Rockies prospect and reliever until he tore his rotator cuff.   The Yankees were happy to give him a chance, as the injury market is another place the Yanks seem to be finding relievers.  Anyway Matt had 13K's in 5.1 innings so far this year, why not give him a shot.   Could be a great story.

Giants Draft Fallacy: We Can Coach Him Up

After teams make selections, the GM, the Coach and the Head of Scouting usually take turns extolling the brilliance of their latest move.   They can say a lot of things, like "He's versatile," or "He can really get after the quarterback," or "He won't be caught from behind," or stuff like that.   What you don't want to hear them says is "We can coach him up,"  or "We can clean that up."  When they say that, you should worry that they've just wasted a pick.

Here's why:  when they say they can coach a guy up, it means they are sort of desperate and reaching.      This usually indicates they've reached for an athlete and not a player.   I talked about this a bit yesterday,  but it's better to just take players.   And if you are going to take a guy who is more athlete than player -- there still has to be production.  Because if a guy doesn't really know how to play, but is still making plays, you have a chance.   But if he's just a good combine guy who "flashes" on tape because he can run down the field.  Watch out.

Then there are guys who are both athletic and instinctive but raw, and sometimes coaching them up can backfire.   Remember Gibril Wilson?  He played really well when forced into action as a rookie who'd gotten few reps in camp -- and then never really played well again after they "coached him up."

It's weird.  What makes it even moreso, is that football has become far more complicated (notice I'm not using complex) from a down to down x and o's standpoint.  There's a lot more substitution with 3, 4 and 5 WR sets on O and various zone schemes, nickels, dimes, big nickels, NASCAR fronts, etc on D.   So getting the guys who don't need coaching up organized is challenging enough, without finding time for the remedials.

This is true of position switches as well, especially under the new CBA which severely limits practice time in the offseason and from week to week in the regular season.   A team has to be a moving vehicle and there's no long or enough reps to teach a guy a new positions.  Especially one that requires him to cover or go backwards when all he's ever done has go forwards.    This has been a big problem with the Giants linebacker selections as we talked about earlier.  So if one of your buddies is pitching the Giants draft an impressive athlete that they can convert to another position, feel free to smack some sense into him.

So in a few weeks,  when the picks start happening, and Jerry, TC and Marc Ross start talking about them,  dread those coaching words, there's no time for coaching like that anymore and it has always implied a reach.    Btw, "'just scratching the surface," isn't too bad, because there's usually a bunch of production with that.

Yanks Clobber Rays

Well, a Yankee starter finally gave up another earned run.  But it wasn't until the 7th inning of a laugher in Tampa.  Earlier, CC, who had benefited from both a double and triple play behind him, had given up an unearned run on a passed ball.   Soriano, McCann, and Solarte all homered.   Ellsbury tripled, and Roberts, back in the lineup,was a homer short of the cycle.  They still need to walk more, but it was a 10-2 final and there's not much to complain about.   Dellin Betances pitched a scoreless 8th and 9th.  The 8th was an adventure as PitchFX showed the home plate umpire squeezing Dellin into two walks.   But he got out of it,  then worked a 5 pitch 1K 9th.    He still has no ERA.   Yanks might be on a bit of a roll and Kuroda cannot drop the baton tomorrow.  Let's go, Yanks!

Rangers Explode in 3rd to Take a 1-0 Series Lead!

Actually, Brad Richards exploded in the third, but I can't find my pics of him so here's one of the other goal scorers, Derek Stepan.    The game was tied 1-1 after a Mats Zuccarello goal (from Pouiot and Staal) after 1.

Then things got dicey as the Rangers dominated the second period but had nothing to show for it.  We've all seen games like this where a sudden odd man rush costs the game.    It was starting to look like possible overtime as the 3rd period progressed, but a double minor on a bad high stick to Carl Hagelin's head lead to two PPG's.   Richards scored the first from St. Louis and Nash (nice use of budget for the night).   Then Stepan scored from Richards and St. Louis.   And the it was all over but the shouting.

Hagelin was able to continue playing and scored the Rangers 4th goal, this one from Richards and Fast, playing in his first NHL Playoff game.

In all, a great effort after the rust was shaken off.   3 more and we advance!   Let's go, Rangers!

Yankee Pitching

Yankee pitching sure looks a lot better with Tanaka and Pineda, two 25 years olds, pitching like aces. If they are indeed top of the rotation guys, the Yanks can really set up a dominant pitching staff in the next season or two.  First, off, the bullpen will be set as guys like Betances, Burawa, Ramirez and Montgomery will assume big roles in the coming months and seasons.    Secondly, the 2014 offseason pitching market should feature Scherzer and Lester, either of whom would slot in with Tanaka and Pineda.  And finally, the Yanks have some high upside arms like Mitchell and DePaula who could start flying soon.  They've both had impressive starts already.   The biggest question mark is Nova.   He hasn't solved his inconsistency yet this year, and hasn't been able to get his whole arsenal working either.   If he clicks, he'll stick. Otherwise we'll have to replace him.    We'll probably have to replace Kuroda next year in any event.  But Scherzer or Lester should do the trick.    CC still has 2 or three seasons to go.   If he ever bounces back all the better.

Now, all of this being said, we do not want to be the `90s era Braves and not have enough fire power to win multiple titles if it turns out we have dominant pitching.  So Cash or whoever, will still have to find bats.   It would be nice if the Farm started yielding a few.  

Giants Draft: The Production Model

This seems like a no brainer, but apparently it isn't.  When the Giants draft well, they draft players who played all the time for their teams and produced.   When they don't draft well, they trade up for guys they fell in love with at the Senior Bowl practices like Sinorice Moss.  Other teams have been known to fall in love with guys at the combine who weren't terribly productive in college.   It's often the same mistake.

And I think those mistakes happen most often when the coaching staff gets involved.   NFL Scouts spend their weeks traveling around the country attending collegiate games and practices, looking at tape of the games they didn't attend, and writing up scouting reports.    NFL Coaches spend their weeks getting ready to play 1 game.

In fact, NFL coaches don't get involved in the draft process until after the season is done.   And that usually starts with them attending all-star games like the Senior Bowl.   That's where Tom Coughlin reportedly fell in love with Sinorice Moss.

Here's the other thing, and probably why the Moss error happened.    Remember how I told you that Bill Belichick can teach people off the street to play solid zone defense in about 15 minutes?   That's because he was once a great DB's coach.   Well TC was once a great WR's coach, so when he speaks about a WR, like a Sinorice Moss or a Ramses Barden, you should probably give a listen.   I assume that's what went wrong with Moss who was not productive in college.

Barden was a different case.  Barden was massively productive at a lower level of competition.  And if you're going to draft from small schools like that, what you have to have see if NFL measurables and dominant production.  The Giants have scored over the years grabbing guys just like that.   Unfortunately, Barden arrived at the same time as Nicks, and promptly got hurt and kept getting hurt. Plus, being as big as he was he wasn't a return guy, so it was hard for him to get healthy and get active.

I think they actually drafted him because they had lost Plax and Barden was big like Plax and in some ways a better athlete.   Plax was a way better football player.

That brings us to an important distinction about production.   Some guys will be massively productive in college, then test out as average athletes at the combine.  Guess what?   You should always take those players over the ones who test great but weren't productive in college.   And here's why: guys who aren't great athlete but still manage to produce at college are instinctive, and you can't teach instincts.

Malcom Gladwell could probably show us how long it would take a player to develop instincts, but teams don't have that kind of time.    Thus, drafting from a production model at least protects you from getting uninstinctive players -- unless they come from such a low level that they can dominate without instincts.  Barden may have been a little bit like this.

Anyway, falling in love at showcases and the combine is the real problem here.  I don't think it threatens the league like falling in love with guys who have potential  but don't know how to play is ruining basketball, but it's a good way to get bad fast.

The Raiders, for example, love to draft speed and guys who blow up the combine.   And they go through coaches like Madonna used to go through men, because even a great coach can't teach people who have athletic talent but not football talent.

When Al Davis was alive, Oakland used be a great second stop for players because Al would see where they could still be productive.  They don't have a guy like that anymore.

But getting back to the Giants, they make mistakes when they go for athletes over players.   They hit home runs when they grab players who are athletes and tend to avoid busts when they pick guys who know how to play.

As I've said earlier the Giants have gone to a default system where they take sort of productive players from major schools like Phil Dillard, Greg Jones and Tyler Sash.  They were all productive in college, though Dillards numbers correlated with the presence of Suh at Nebraska.   Even good production should be vetted to make sure it was the province of the compiler and not the teammates or systems.   Interestingly enough, all three of those bad picks were from the Big 10.

Right now, if I was running a team, I would only take the top players from the Big 10, the vast majority of college talent now seems to be in the SEC, the PAC 12 and the ACC.    That seems to be where most of the players are.  The Giants might favor the Big 10 because they play in weather, but the talent just isn't as deep as it used to be there.

Ranger Playoffs Tonight

Hank will be in net and Ryan McDonagh will return.   Not sure if Miller or Fast will play, but I'd play Miller against the physical Flyers.  Looks like we'll be facing their back up.  And though we've had a history of making backups look like Dryden in the regular season, everything can be different in the playoffs and that's one thing that has to be.  No stupid penalties, and don't let the Flyers get under your skin.   Play for 60 minutes.    That top line of Nash, Stepan and St.Louis has got to be productive.   And we need the Brassard line to be as well.  Screw it.  All 4 lines have to be flying.   Let's go, Rangers!

Pineda Holds Serve

Pineda was also outstanding in his start today, going 6 ip allowing no runs, 4 hits and a walk.   He struck out just 3 -- and managed to wriggle out of danger in the 5th.   They limited him to 89 pitches, and it looked like he might have been squeezed a bit on Pitch FX.    Still, he has been terrific thus far and we must remember he is coming off of both injury and inactivity and had his rehab shutdown last year.   So this has been really impressive and needed.   And these two young 25 year old horses are calling for other upgrades.   No point in wasting dominance.

Girardi continued to challenge his relievers in this one, throwing Phelps in for 4 outs and Thornton in for two.  When Thornton gave up a hit to start the ninth, Adam Warren came in and closed it.   He may be finding a home in the pen.  And though I usually like to keep starters as starters, an extra starter who can be a plus reliever is a conversion I can support.

The Yanks still need another infielder or two.  But this team can pitch.

Knicks: Signing Odom

Phil Jackson is making his first move as Knicks czar.   The team is finalizing deal with former everything and reality TV star Lamar Odom.   Odom will sign a deal for this year, which has one game left, with an option for next year.   This allows the Knicks to monitor Odom over the summer and see if they want to keep him around.  Sort of like an ankle monitor deal for Odom.  He may or may not be used to them, given his colorful off court antics.   I guess he knows the triangle and that seems to be where we're headed.  So there could be some value in this, other than the pure entertainment he intentionally and unintentionally provides.   I do hope it's part of a happy recovery for Lamar.  It would be nice to see him end his career on an upswing.

Giants Draft: A Bad Habit

Last year, the Giants spent 2 picks to move up in the 4th round and draft Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib.  The jury's still out on Nassib, but trading up is a move that has literally never paid off for them in the last 10 years.

Before you say, "What about Eli?"  That was not a trade up.  The Giants didn't acquire the #1 pick, they acquired Eli after picking Philip Rivers with their own pick, and then swapping Rivers and picks to get Eli.     So that was not a trade up.   And for the record, I think Rivers would have been a disaster playing in Giants stadium wind and weather and with the New York Press.

So here are the guys the Giants have traded up for:

2006:  Sinorice Moss

2008:  Bryan Kehl

2009:  Ramses Barden

2013:  Ryan Nassib.

Moss required trading up in the second round.  Barden required trading up in the third.   Kehl and Nassib required moving up in the 4th.   So Moss was the worst use of resources, Barden the second worse and so on and so forth.

So now, we know at least 75% of the time the Giants have done that they have wasted 2 picks.  Essentially, that means that the Giants felt passionately about the three players who have already failed.  Obviously players they didn't like as much and who have gone onto much better careers whom the Giant brain trust just didn't recognize.   That argues pretty heavily against the notion of a scouting advantage I thought they possessed when we were winning Super Bowls.  

It's perplexing when this happens.   Especially when  it happens under Jerry Reese who was a notably good scout when that was his job.    The Moss disaster took place under Ernie Accorsi.     Sinorice Moss was an underproductive player at Miami, who was fast, but had tight hips, and no specials value.    In doing so, the passed on Daryn Colledge, Marcus McNeill, Ryan Cook, Greg Jennings, Anthony Fasano, Andre Whitworth, Devin Hester and Maurice Jones Drew, among other who could have really helped them.

Usually drafts have one small pool of blue chip prospects, then a much bigger pool of red chip players.  Red chip players are usually red chip because they have a presumptive flaw in size, speed, development or level of play.  All this being said, there are more former red chip players than blue chip players in the hall of fame.  A blue chip player busts for you, it's far more costly than a red chip player busting, but you build you team by finding the red chip players who can perform for you.

So when you trade two picks after the first round, you are invariably giving away the chance to get two red chips that fit you for 1 red chip you have a "conviction" about.   Paying 2 for 1 for anything is bad business.   I think that's clear.  Even if you think draft picks aren't worth much, they are worth what they are worth, and if your trade up nets a player who is not as good as a bunch of players you didn't take, you've screwed the pooch.

The Giants have done this at least 3 times in the last ten years, and may have done it again last year.  It's on Nassib to break the streak,

Tanaka Triumphant

Masahiro Tanaka was tremendous in the first game of today's day/night doubleheader.    He worked 8 scoreless inning walking one, striking out 10, and allowing 2 measly hits, both of which were bunts.   He was really mixing his pitches, throwing more curves and sliders than in his previous starts.    His stuff was obviously great, but it seemed like was he was varying the speed of his fastball, too.  He didn't have to reach from anymore today as they just couldn't square him up.   He is really looking like the real deal, and at just 25, a foundational pitcher for the franchise.   He is already on the El Duque/Godzilla side of the International Veteran talent signings ledger.   Let's see if Pineda can match him in the nightcap.   The bar has been set!

Btw, Kelley pitched a scoreless 9th and the Yanks won 3-0.  But the story was Tanaka.   I think we're about to have Tanakamania.