Giants Draft: Upside

Around this time of year, you hear a lot of talk about certain players who have upside and those who are more finished projects.  This expresses the idea that a player has the ability to get better or much better after he's picked.  Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't.   In general, the younger the player the more upside he has and that's because he's reached a draftable talent level at a younger age than the majority of his draft class.  That's a pretty straightforward proposition.  Hakeem Nicks turned pro at 20 or 21 and was a great player by 22.

That's why a lot of teams like to draft Juniors, because of the expectation of more physical/talent development.  Of course, you still have to look at the ages.  They are pretty cockamamie in pro sports now for three reasons.  First, parents of precociously athletic kids often hold them back a year so they can stick out even more in prep sports - making them a year older than they would normally be during each collegiate year.

The other issue is red-shirting.   That's when kids go to college and get red shirted for their Freshman years, meaning they can't play or practice with the team, but are expected tot get bigger and stronger. Then as collegiate Sophomores they become red-shirt Freshman on the field.  This makes them 22 or 23 as a "junior."

Also, there's the issue of college transfers where they make you sit out a year or junior college transfers who often lose a year in the translation.

All of this amounts to an inordinate number of 24 year olds in the NFL Draft each year.   In general, those guys have less upside than the younger kids.  But, at the same time, they become undervalued as college Seniors are in all sports.  

In general, OL's, DT's, and QB's are the best senior picks.  That's because OL and DT are size positions, so the Seniors have had more time to grow, as well as more experience.    QB's are the other one.   There have been an inordinate number of Junior QB's who came out early and did not make it like they might have.  Mark Sanchez is a great example of that.  That probably has to do solely with experience and having the age to command older teammates.

At other positions, true Juniors almost always have more upside.

But getting back to this elusive idea of upside, some picks are for now and some are for the future.   In 2010 the Giants hit the jackpot when they took JPP in the first round over some older, more experienced pass rushers.  That was a brilliant pick that, until injuries and weight piled up, looked like an all time Giant pick.

They were able to swing for the fences then because everyone's job was still pretty secure from SB 42, and they had enough pass rushers to spend some time developing JPP.

But even though the Giants are still pretty close to Superbowl 46, they cannot afford to swing for the fences in this one. They've had too many bad picks over the past few years, and Eli is not getting any younger.  

So this will have to be a high floor draft, like we had in 2007 (and boy, did that pay immediate dividends).   Though Bradshaw was by far our best pick, and DeOssie is the only one who is still around.

At this point, the Giants need a better draft than they had in 2007, and picking 12th they should be probably be able to have one, but they can't swing for the fences till day there, if even then, because they have too many roster problems as a result of poor drafts, injuries and free agent defections.

Fortunately, OL is still job one, and they should be able to accomplish it.