Giants Draft: A Bad Habit

Last year, the Giants spent 2 picks to move up in the 4th round and draft Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib.  The jury's still out on Nassib, but trading up is a move that has literally never paid off for them in the last 10 years.

Before you say, "What about Eli?"  That was not a trade up.  The Giants didn't acquire the #1 pick, they acquired Eli after picking Philip Rivers with their own pick, and then swapping Rivers and picks to get Eli.     So that was not a trade up.   And for the record, I think Rivers would have been a disaster playing in Giants stadium wind and weather and with the New York Press.

So here are the guys the Giants have traded up for:

2006:  Sinorice Moss

2008:  Bryan Kehl

2009:  Ramses Barden

2013:  Ryan Nassib.

Moss required trading up in the second round.  Barden required trading up in the third.   Kehl and Nassib required moving up in the 4th.   So Moss was the worst use of resources, Barden the second worse and so on and so forth.

So now, we know at least 75% of the time the Giants have done that they have wasted 2 picks.  Essentially, that means that the Giants felt passionately about the three players who have already failed.  Obviously players they didn't like as much and who have gone onto much better careers whom the Giant brain trust just didn't recognize.   That argues pretty heavily against the notion of a scouting advantage I thought they possessed when we were winning Super Bowls.  

It's perplexing when this happens.   Especially when  it happens under Jerry Reese who was a notably good scout when that was his job.    The Moss disaster took place under Ernie Accorsi.     Sinorice Moss was an underproductive player at Miami, who was fast, but had tight hips, and no specials value.    In doing so, the passed on Daryn Colledge, Marcus McNeill, Ryan Cook, Greg Jennings, Anthony Fasano, Andre Whitworth, Devin Hester and Maurice Jones Drew, among other who could have really helped them.

Usually drafts have one small pool of blue chip prospects, then a much bigger pool of red chip players.  Red chip players are usually red chip because they have a presumptive flaw in size, speed, development or level of play.  All this being said, there are more former red chip players than blue chip players in the hall of fame.  A blue chip player busts for you, it's far more costly than a red chip player busting, but you build you team by finding the red chip players who can perform for you.

So when you trade two picks after the first round, you are invariably giving away the chance to get two red chips that fit you for 1 red chip you have a "conviction" about.   Paying 2 for 1 for anything is bad business.   I think that's clear.  Even if you think draft picks aren't worth much, they are worth what they are worth, and if your trade up nets a player who is not as good as a bunch of players you didn't take, you've screwed the pooch.

The Giants have done this at least 3 times in the last ten years, and may have done it again last year.  It's on Nassib to break the streak,