A Month of Fundays

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Monday, November 13, 2006

More Yanks

It's becoming more and more apparent that the Boston Red Sox have won the right to negotiate a contract with Yankee #1 offseason target Dice Matsuzaka. This throws a monkey wrench in their plans, since none of the other FA pitchers seem like ideal fits for a Yankee team looking to start winning championships again.

Barry Zito is the next big name out there, but he's not an ace, and has had historical trouble against the Yanks and Red Sox. What's more, he and his agent, Scott Boras will be looking for ace dollars. On the plus side, he's a lefty and a consistent outlier and been so long enough to simply state certain stats don't define the quality pitcher he is. Ultimately, it seems like he would require too large a commitment for a guy who'd be the #4 or #5 pitcher on the squad by the middle of his deal.

Next on the list and a man who is thought to be the Yanks plan b is Jason Schmidt, a 34 year old power righty who has had some injury concerns lately. Depending on years and dollars Schmidt might make the most sense. The Yanks have a # of power arms who will be coming up over the next few years, and Schmidt could be a good mentor for them. That's not a practical reason to get him, though. The question really comes down to, will he be healthy enough to be dominant in the playoffs? I don't think that's a big money bet they should make.

The next group includes two guys who might retire: Clemens and Pettitte. Clemens would probably be ideal for a one year arrangement, but Pettitte isn't what he's been, and his wife wants him down in Texas. Ultimately, I see these guys both back in Houston and the Yanks having to look elsewhere.

Finally there is a pol of guys like Lilly, Meche, Padilla and Wolf. I'm not interested in Lilly but taking a shot on any two of the others might make some sense. Each comes with an injury or development flag, but as a result the Yanks could get a little more bang for the buck if they perform.

Ultimately, the free agent market is wanting, and with a number of pitchers who are just about ready in the system already, I hope Cashmoney Green either goes cheap on a free agent starter or two, or uses some prospects and parts (not Hughes, Tabata, Sanchez) to get a young starter who can be a long term fit for the Yanks.

Go Cash! Go Yanks!

15 Comments:

At 2:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cashman has blown the two major decisions of the season: 1) he was the driving force in bringing Torre back; and 2) despite having the largest revenue streams in MBL, he underbid for the best and youngest starting pitcher available.

I no longer have any confidence in him.

 
At 3:07 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 3:09 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

I don't see it that way. Torre has 1 year left and there was no one outside the Yankee system Cash was interested in seeing manage the Yanks. Let Torre play it out and retire, then install Donnie Baseball. You don't just change managers becase people are upset.

Secondly, I don't know what the Yanks bid on Matsuzaka, but I bet it was the absolute most they were willing to. I'm sure they had the best information available when they made their deal, but they weren't gonna go beyond a certain point. I'm sure they would have done better if it wasn't a blind bid but it was and there's no use being anything but undertandably disappointed about it. The key will be how Cash responds.

Cash has made two great trades since the offseason started, and I won't be surprised when he makes a few more. I still have total confidence in Cash.

3:07 PM

 
At 3:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I understand, but I disagree with your conclusion. Cashman has said that Torre is the guy who is best suited for the job. He has been Torre's primary supporter in the organization for years.

I don't think he was interested in anyone else. In my opinion, Bobby Valentine or Larry Dierker were candidates who would be better than Torre. Mattingly may or may not become a good manager. At this point, I don't think we can say with any confidence that he will be. I also don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Torre is necessarily gone after this season.

What is the difference between $30 million dollars (which is the rumored amount of their bid) and $45 or even $50 million when you burn money the way the Yankees do on the likes of RJ, Pavano, Wright, and countless others? Not much.

Cashman (unless he was overruled by Levine or Swindal) misread the market for Matsuzaka.

Starting pitching is their biggest need, and Matsuzaka is the best option available, perhaps having the potential to be not just good, but great.

Given his overwhelming payroll advantage the Yankees don't get the bang for he buck that they should be getting.

I would much rather have a GM like Billy Beane or Terry Ryan who have been able to build perennial contenders with a fraction of the Yankees' budget. I don't think Cashman could accomplish what they have accomplished with their budget.

IMO, unless Matsuzaka under performs, there is no other way to spin this than that Theo owned Cashman.

 
At 3:56 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

I disagree. The only spin is this. The Yanks bid what they thought he was worth to the, the Red Sox bid what they thought he was worth to them. The Sox had a higher value on him. The Sox don't remotely have the minor league pitching the Yanks have and three of the high upside Yankee minor league starters will be ready at some point in 2003. The Yanks at the major league level are pitching troubled right now, but help is several months - not years - away. I hope they take that 30 million and throw it back into the minor league system that has exploded under one year of Cashmoney Green's influence.

As for Bean or Ryan, maybe they would be better, but since Cash has had more power, he's shown a commitment to the farm that would serve him well with a low rent never win team like the ones Bean and Ryan gm for. They've never had to deal with Steinbrenner.

As for Valentine and Dierker, I appreciate their understanding of the real game, but, at least in the case of Valentine, there is a big time personality issue there, and I don't think he could handle the Yankee clubhouse without getting punched out at some point. I don't know if there's a concern about Dierker or not, but I do think Cashmoney Green has a long term and orderly ascension plan he wasn't going to see thrown off the track because of temper tantrums from above.

The moves Cash has made - signing draft picks, winning Montero and a dozen other foreign prospects (including one last week), the Abreu, Sheff and Wright trades - have all been outstanding. I see a disciplined, non-reactive system here for the first time I can remember, and I have faith in it.

 
At 4:06 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

trivial pursuer, thanks for stopping by! I sort of expect the Yanks to trade for a starter who sort of fits their "get younger" thing. I don't know who it will be, though. I tend to want to go with what we have plus Rasner or Karstens, and wait on the kids or till the trade deadline to make a move for a big time pitcher.

 
At 3:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't get it

The redsox bid was insane. I can't even begin to understand how losing out the redsox is theo owning cashman.

chaka

 
At 3:49 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

The Red Sox did what we would probably have done if we were one offseason away from irrelevance. All of the pitching in their system that projects to anything is years away, and there are no sure things for `07 under contract right now. Schilling's old, Wakefield was injured, Beckett sucked, Papelbon got a sore arm after 68 innings... They were screwed.

 
At 5:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

chaka,

Matsuzaka was the best starting pitcher available. Both the Yankees and the Sox need starting pitching. We are often told that the revenue that Matsui brings in more than pays for his contract. So it's not unreasonable to think that the revenue that Matsuzaka will generate for the Sox in the Pacific Rim will offset their posting fee. In light of the foregoing, I think it's apparent that Theo got the best of Cashman with regard to this transaction.

If the Yankees respond by acquiring a top of the rotation starter who is under 30, I will rethink my position.

 
At 5:40 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

The Yanks know EXACTLY the point of dimishing returns in Japanese player acquisitions. They bid it. Fools rushed in over the wise money. That is not the Yankees problem. And this offseason they have already picked Humberto Sanchez who projects as a top two starter and is way under 30 and cheap.

 
At 5:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Time will tell. It's not like the Yankees haven't made miscalculations before.

I will grant that $51.1 is a ton of money.

I think Sanchez is as likely to be used as a chip in a future trade as he is to pitch for the Yankees.

Moving on, Heyman said on Michael Kay's show that Giambi and Damon think that Zito wants to play for the Yankees and he wouldn't be surprised if he took a little less to play here.

 
At 5:56 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

I'm ambivalent about Zito. He would eat innings, but could be a postseason disaster. I don't think the Yanks acquired Sanchez to trade him, they have been interested in him since he was in high school. Clippard is the one who may now go in a trade, as he doesn't fit the current Yankee model of a power pitcher.

 
At 9:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

$70m/80m for 3 years for a pitcher is fucking stupid

and we have no idea if matzsuka is the best pitcher available. he may just have the most incremental marketing value to a team without a japanese player

i'll better whatever you want that jason schmidt has a better 2007 than matszuka

chaka

 
At 9:10 PM, Blogger Kalel9 said...

We'll see. I'm eager to see Hughes and Sanchez and not too worried about the Sox and what they spend.

 
At 9:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

$30m for 2 years on jason schmidt is better thn 90 fo 4 on matsuzka

lets not forget that money matters. we lost beltran because of previous bad financial decisions. 3/10 of BA's top 10 were 2006 draft picks we signed away with cash (betances, melancon, joba)

chaka

 

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