Yanks Stuff
Yanks won last night and there are some good signs arising. First, the rotation is gaining some traction this time through. Pineda has been the only bad start this time through. Also, the Yanks are leading the league in walks and homers. I love that, but those are also what Bill James used to consider old player skills. And the Yanks have a lot of old players.
Down on the farm, Ian Clarkin has a sore elbow. Let's hope that's all it is. Meanwhile, this also underscores the fact that we will probably be SP heavy in this draft and that one of the 1's will be spent on a starter, and I would guess that the other will be an up the middle bat. Well see. Could be two pitchers.
49 Comments:
Nat E. seems to be one of those guys who can throw as hard in the later innings as ghe does in the early innings. He was clocked at 98 on the YES gun in the 8th. He was regularly at 97 in the 7th on his 4-seamer. His control is pretty good, although his command needs a bit of tightening up. He did not hit McCann's glove on a regular basis.
So far, I like what I see from the pitching staff. The power seems to be there, as you noted in your blog post. The overall hitting leaves quite a bit to be desired. Tex, Didi, Mac and Drew are all near or below .200. That's too many guys not hitting on a regular basis.
Just wanted to also point out. I have a co-worker who saw Scranton vs. Syracuse over the weekend. The focus , per my request, was on Refsnyder.
The "scouting" report back to me was not encouraging. Very small sample size, but he seemed to struggle with hard-hit grounders toward his left (into the 1B "hole"). Also, looked slow on the few DP chances he had. Seems to take an extra step before turning when he is the pivot man on the DP. Maybe it's just a bad habit, or maybe he really needs work.
Regardless, he is not ready defensively for the big show.
I am slowly coming around to the opinion that the Yankees did not make a mistake not keeping Refsnyder up here after ST, or handing him the 2B job after Prado was dealt away. He really needs reps in the Minors.
This is the kind of trade you should always make: fungible veterans for young upside. That is what separates this one from most of Cashmans' trades, and it's the reason I liked it, unlike the others.
Supposedly Eovaldi changed his arm angle, moving it closer to the body, giving him more depth and control of his breaking pitches.
As for Refs, I really don't care about his defense. They need plus young bats, and defense is a small price to pay for that.
Again, they lived with Jeter and Posada's below average defense for years. Why? Because they could hit.
The same is true of a number of veterans they had in their decline phase.
It is absurd to hold Refs to a different standard on such an offensively challenged team.
Another point about this misplaced emphasis on defense (the franchise was known as the Bombers not the Gloves):
It has been said that great players don't make good managers/coaches because they don't know what it's like to struggle.
The Yankees, in contrast, are burdened with a manager who wasn't a good player yet overvalues players who were just like him.
The prime example: Chris Stewart.
This has to stop in order to escape the mediocrity that their inefficient payroll helps perpetuate.
Right now, Refs is worse than he was at the end of last season. So he's probably thinking too much. Not even hitting great yet.
Being sent down after the spring he had can cause some frustration, so I think it's understandable.
He would have made the team, given the available options, with franchises who aren't so development-averse.
Another player who wasn't great defensively despite the GG, which Jeter somehow also won.
Bernie is officially retiring.
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/04/22/bernie-williams-will-officially-retire-friday/
Note that the Bronx Bomber teams of the old days had some excellent defensive players especially up the middle. Dickey, Berra, Howard, Combs, diMaggio, Mantle, Maris, Koenig, Crosetti, Rizzuto, McDougald, Kubek, Richardson, Boyer to name a few. The way the old Stadium was configured, having fast outfielders was a must.
Even now, good defense makes pitchers more effective, not only because of the plays made in the field but also because the pitchers feel confident in using a bit more of the plate and, presto! control suddenly gets better.
The problem is, "good defense" is coming at the expense of offense. That's why Didi will get a long leash at short but Refsnyder won't sniff second base this season.
That was before the amateur draft.
We are now in an era when parity is rising and offense is falling.
Plus young bats are the most valuable commodity in MLB.
You know what makes pitchers more effective? Pitching with a lead, or with the confidence that their offense will almost never be out of a game.
Look at Tanaka last year. Almost every inning was high leverage because the offense abysmal. So one mistake was a killer.
Sure defense is nice, but it the least important part of baseball.
The Yankees' recent run is testimony to that since three of their up the middle stars were often below average defensively but raked offensively.
It's as if management has collective amnesia.
I wouldn't call it the least important aspect of baseball by a long shot. Don't get me wrong, I certainly don't want a team of Mark Belangers, but good defense makes a big difference. I don't think that any dynasty team didn't at least have solid defense, and that includes the 1996-2000 Yankees. Remember the young Jeter didn't have as limited range as the older one and made some superb fielding plays, especially on bloopers and throws from the hole.
Yes, Jeter was great on flyballs and if he had been more flexible, he should have been shifted to CF, like Robin Yount.
But he was never more than average defensively, and for periods of time he was awful. You may recall Cashman telling him to do offseason drills about six years ago.
A lot of his "spectacular" plays were to compensate for his limited range, like the jump throw in the 3B hole. Forget about him getting to balls up the middle at any age.
So here is my ranking:
Hitting
Pitching (taking into account unpredictable fragility, particularly with pitchers under 26, but really throughout their career)
Defense
If this was the 2009 team, let alone the 1998 team, you could carry a defense-only INF or CF or C.
With this group, you really can't.
McCann, unlike Beltran, shows the benefit of putting the ball in play.
Yanks will end up trading for a real 2B.
Refsnyder isn't even passable at this point in SWB. What makes anyone think he would be better in the majors..especially in a big market like NY.
Jeter was average towards the tail end of his career and made the plays he was EXPECTED to be made.
Murphy isn't playing over McCann and to suggest otherwise is nonsense.
Petit got a big hit, so I guess pigs can indeed fly.
The cold weather seems to be playing a role in Price's command.
But 40+ pitches in the 1st? Way to grind.
Everything you type is nonsense, so if I disagree with your bullshit, I feel good.
Truth hurts I bet
If you can't consistently make the routine plays than you don't belong in the big leagues.
Truth being a relative measure in your world, apparently.
If you have no range, you are less likely to commit errors. So they are really one of the least informative defensive metrics.
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This sounds like a bad night for pitchers.
I guess Refsnyder has more range so therefore he would butcher more plays than.
He can't make the plays that are routine.
Right now, maybe. But that's part of development. And his bat is ready, small sample size for this season be damned. Give him a shot, because the team overall is good defensively that it can handle one maybe spot in exchange for something it desperately needs: offense.
*good enough
This, of course, stands in contrast to Didi, who is supposed to be a defensive plus with a meh bat -- and he can't make routine plays either.
Not the case. He has only 1 error against him
You know as well as I do, though, that the error stat doesn't tell the whole story. He's been a head case at short, plain and simple.
Hey, another high-upside Cuban defected. He won't be subject to bonus pool restrictions so I'm sure Hal can be convinced to... Wait, who am I kidding? No he can't.
http://bit.ly/1HVPjoM
Anon, plays like the one linked below are what I'm talking about. While this technically isn't an "error" (ruled a single), his utter lack of baseball acumen led to a run scoring without an out. Didi makes a good play diving to his right to keep the ball in the infield, then inexplicably throws all the way across his body to second instead of setting himself and tossing it to third, where Martinez would have been out by several seconds.
I can live with an all-glove SS in this day and age, but he'd better start playing like he knows what he's doing if he isn't going to hit worth a damn.
http://m.mlb.com/video/v84412283/nyydet-cespedes-grounds-an-rbi-single-in-the-1st/?c_id=mlb
Yeah that was brutal and he needs to work on that for sure.
Guys, Yankees are over 500 and have taken 2/3 from Detroit with #TANAK going tonight.
Let's hope he builds off that last start and dominates.
Can we stop bickering over god damn Refsnyder? There are clearly sides here that don't think he's ready because he is a ridiculously POOR defender and there are others who want him up because he can hit and don't care for defense.
Whatever side you fall on, great but we are beating a dead horse in arguing over this time and time again.
Mike K makes a good point about Didi. One thing about Jeter was that he made some extraordinary heads-up plays throughout his career. His smarts probably made up at least some of his limitations during his last years.
Incidentally, count me in the "I'd love to see Refs here but he needs to turn it around defensively first" camp. By all accounts he has a great attitude and good baseball IQ. I wonder why he seems to have regressed in the field from last year and hope he can get over it quickly. I would add that it will probably be easier for him to do it without the George King/Joel Sherman/Bill Madden crowd second-guessing him on the back page every day. I'm a long way from thinking of him as the next Rich McKinney, but let's not turn him into a head case.
As I have said, I expect this team to be 3-5 games above and below .500 all season.
If so, do they try to get younger and better, or better and older?
@Stottlemyer68, I think they've already made him a head case by pounding into his head, "Your bat is ready, but you gotta get better defensively," which I think explain his current struggles both in the field and at the plate in SWB.
I'd much rather they let him play second in NY, as he's going to have to get used to the media pressure at some point anyway. Simply tell him, "You'll have some growing pains, both hitting and defensively, but just play loose and have fun. The other guys have your back."
I'm thrilled the team seems to be getting it together, but I'm still skeptical it has enough offensive firepower to win consistently.
Writers have been talking about Ellsbury not earning his really, really, really big contract, but yet somehow being able to fly under the radar.
If he somehow falters in big spots v. the Mets, that could change quickly.
Again. I think he is a very good player in his own way. He uses the whole field, he walks some, his defense is above average, and he is a very good baserunner.
But you have to SLG to make the big money most of the time.
Like you, I like the player but hate the contract. Made no sense he was given that much given his health issues (though admittedly they seemed more freakish than anything) and the fact that he really only hit for power one season.
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So, I found this link while perusing NYYFans this morning:
http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2014/12/06/mcmanaman-didi-gregorius-stint-as-derek-jeters-replacement-wont-last-long/20013083/
From that article:
And it could get even worse. Gregorius is a pleasant and polite young man, but he's also quiet, introverted and has shown he can be a little mentally fragile when things aren't going his way.
"He lets too many things get to him," an ex-teammate said. "Didi, sometimes he just thinks too much, you know?"
"He always seems to have a lot on his mind," former manager Kirk Gibson liked to say.
They're going to eat him alive in New York.
After it was announced the Diamondbacks had acquired left-hander Robbie Ray and infielder Domingo Leyba from the Tigers for Gregorius, who was then immediately flipped to the Yanks for starting pitcher Shane Greene, this was a scout's take on Gregorius in a text message to the New York Daily News:
"He's OK. Solid defender, bat is light – long swing. Good athlete. Nervous type, not sure he can handle NY."
----
If this was the case, it should have made them think twice about the trade, especially in light of Drew's availability.
And then there's this, which confirms our suspicions that Gregorius has been putrid defensively: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/scotts-miscellany-early-defensive-numbers-and-their-fantasy-implications/
I've liked a lot of Cashman's trades over the years, but given everything I linked combined with my suspicions that Didi simply doesn't have a high baseball IQ, I'm wondering why someone didn't red flag this potential deal.
Here's a problem I think is more Hal/Levine than Cashman.
They seem to only spend significant money when money comes off of the books (with Tex being a Cashman inspired exception).
So they had a lot of money to spend that offseason, and they were losing the only really good position player they have developed under Cashman.
I fully understand why they didn't want to give Cano 10 years.. We'll never know if 8 at $25m per would have gotten a deal done.
So they felt compelled to spend the savings immediately because they would have faltered if they waited, even though it would have benefited in the mid- to long-run.
The money was then spend really poorly, and of course, until they commit to developing their own players, it's hard to see how this ever changes.
So until then, like Cashman said during the offseason, we rely on old players somehow finding it.
Ugh.
They more they win, the easier it will be for him.
If they had lost last night because of his screw ups, it would have gotten worse.
Even though I hated the trade (and most Cashman's trades), I am fine with just letting him play all season.
LNJ makes a very good point. My instinct when the Ellsbury signing was announced before Cano officially signed with Seattle was that they wanted to preempt the "bad" news of Cano leaving by making a deal of their own. I'm also with LNJ in feeling uncertain whether a 25/8 offer to Cano -- if accepted -- would have been a good or a bad move. Probably a bit of both, some good years and then some burdensome ones.
On a much more positive note, SSS obviously, but it's been nice seeing this resurgence of sorts with Slade Heathcott and Mason Williams. Given the unlikelihood that the corpse of Carlos Beltran is going to get any better, I'd like to see what Heathcott has in particular at some point.
Eric Jagielo continues to do well in Trenton also.
That raises a key point. It's great that Chris Young has been well, great, but he shouldn't be permitted to block anyone.
To the contrary, he should be traded whenever a young player with upside is ready.
That's how you get out of this and move forward.
Everyone here is just making assumptions in regards to Refsnyder struggles. The odds are probably good that he's taking his issues in the field to the plate, which is causing this problem.
For those that think bringing him up to NY and telling him not to worry about making errors, tha'ts quite a fairy tale. He's in AAA right now and struggling, if you think that will alleviate any pressure on him especially when there's 40,000+ watching in person and hundreds of thousands on TV, you are mistaken.
The minors are meant for players to develop and rushing him to the bigs is silly.
As for DiDi, I'm hopeful he settles down in the field. It's still only been a dozen games or so, so i'll reserve judgement until we get closer to 50-75 games.
If that logic is being applied to Refsnyder, who has decent to good offensive upside, it should apply to Didi as well, who's offensive upside is, at best, debatable as of right now.
As soon as Pirela is ready, shift Drew to short, let Pirela man second and send Didi down to get his stuff together. It's gotten to the point where you can't keep sending him out there with the amount of boneheaded mistakes he makes in the field.
I have stayed away from Refs today as per someone's request, but again, this is why a great offense is so important: it takes away the pressure from everyone, except maybe the studs, but that's why they are studs.
Just tuned in. Beltrsn had to put the ball in play there. Balked saved them.
DiDi is just feeling the pressure right now -- he's a plus defender. Just imagine if you put Refs out there -- who's a poor defender.
DiDi will be fine, Refs needs more reps. I won't continue this discussion any longer because it's pointless.
Tanaka looks good. Go yanks.
I think Greg be fine defensively, but there is no way to know offensively.
Huge series win for the Yankees. Credit to Cash for putting together a good pitching staff that isn't costing the moon save CC.
I see this as a very up and down season.
No kudos from me until it's over.
btw, Tanaka isn't cheap either.
The Subway series is going to be viewed under a microscope now. And hyperbole will dominate the coverage.
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