Ugh 2
Physicals have apparently not been completed, so there's still some hope that the Yanks' latest foolish attempt to trade Jesus Montero will be scuttled. But that hope is fading, and we are left with the reality that the Yanks made a ponderous trade, exchanging their best hitting prospect since Mantle, and a perfect long man/rotation piece to the hapless Mariners for a talented pitching project in Michael Pineda, and a possibly big time pitching prospect in 19 year old Venezuelan Jose Campos. While the Yanks were apparently responding to irrational insecurity over their rotation - they signed Kurdo, too - what they should have been worried about is their aging lineup. Sure, Cano and Granderson had big years, but Jeter and ARod saw their numbers shrink from age and injury. Strangely, Mark Teixeira has had two straight years of early decline, Swisher and Gardner are streaky and Russell Martin's just not a good hitter. With Posada retired and Montero traded, they have no DH.
Yet Friday they were worried about a rotation that already had CC, AJ, Nova, Hughes, Garcia, and Noesi, with Phelps and Warren immediately available and Banuelos and Betances possibly ready by June. As I've said before, it wasn't the `71 Orioles, but with Kuroda added in, they had enough to win the division with their killer BP and especially with Montero in the lineup either catching of DHing every day.
But they traded Montero and got back a pitcher who may one day be an ACE but is pretty far from one now. He put up an ERA+ of 103 in his big rookie season. That's three points above average. He won't come near his ceiling unless he develops a reliable changeup. Who knows when that will happen? He is not the ready made ACE that Halladay and Lee were when Montero was offered for them. No, they gave away a great hitter for a project, and it was unresourceful on a variety of levels.
The latest Montero to the Mariners saga started when Brian Cashman once again approached them about acquiring King Felix. Now, though it would have been unwise to trade Montero for anything at this point, an absolute ACE like King Felix would have fit the bill. How this got turned into the Yanks swapping a more highly rated prospect into Montero for the Mariners second or third best pitcher is unfathomable.
What's more, while the Yanks already have pitchers like Betances and Banuelos who project to be top of the rotation pieces and could be ready soon, with Montero gone, they are at least two years away from producing another Yankee Bat from the farm.
So what are they going to do about O for the next two years? Re-sign Russel Martin and platoon him with his clone Austin Romine? Yikes!
It seems like the Yanks could have avoided the coming offensive armageddon by keeping Montero, adding Kuroda and maybe even another one year deal, and seeing what could be done for the rotation at the deadline. By then they'd have been able to trade or promote other prospects for the very "need" they just traded Montero to fill.
posted by Kalel9 @ 1:44 AM
5 Comments:
Best hitting prospect since Mantle? The man-crush has gone too far Kale. Was/Is Montero a good hitter? Yes, there's no denying that.
Was Montero ever going to catch for the Yankees? Never in a million years.
Was he ever going to play 1B? Not with Teixiera here!
So where does he fit? DH. Yes the same DH spot that will be revolving door for the next couple of years as A-Rod and Jeter can no longer play the field.
I love how you keep claiming Montero is already a proven MLB commodity after 61 ab and already guaranteed to be .300/30/120.
Player A: - #1 Prospect in the game
Age 20 in AAA: 86 Games, .316ba / .814ops / 22sb
Age 20 in MLB: 30 Games, .317ba / .812ops
Age 21 in MLB:
Player B: #5 Prospect in the game
Age 20 in AAA: 123 Games, .289ba, .870ops
As you can probably tell, Player B is Montero, but who is Player A? Player A was regarded as a top 3 prospect in baseball for numerous years, he also play's a position in the field and was also traded for a SP prospect.
If you guessed Delmon Young, you are correct. He was the best hitting prospect to come up since sliced bread and how has that worked out?
Montero may be good but saying he is a sure thing is blasphemy. I'm a big Montero fan myself but you are kidding yourself if you thought he can catch or even believed the Yankees thought he could to. I mean comeon Kale, he was replaced in two of his three starts this past season as a C. 3 of 18 starts were as a C, and in 2 of those 3 he was removed for a defensive replacement.
DH is the least valuable position in the MLB and being able to trade him for a 22 year old SP who is already above average and is only going to get better, is a move you make 10/10.
Quit using ERA+, ERA is outdated and + just adjusts for the ballpark. Let's go with xFIP since these are the factors Pineda controls.
In his age 22 rookie season, Pineda finished top 25 in the MLB in xFIP at 3.53. Yes, top 25 which already puts him as an above average SP and this was his first taste of the MLB. For comparison stake, CC's was 3.02, Felix was 3.15, Beckett was 3.58 and Lester was 3.62.
The theory of him never turning into an ACE until he develops a useable changeup is pure bullshit. LH only batted .234 off him last season compared to .180 for RH. That's a minor platoon split which is aided by the .280 babip for LH compared to the .230 babip for RH.
Somehow I feel like no matter who Montero was traded for, you would be upset. Hell even if it was for Strasburg you would be mad.
Montero never had a place to play in the bronx and ultimately Cashman was able to maximize his value and obtain a SP who is built like a horse, is cost controlled for 5 years, made the all-star team his rookie season, finished as a Top 25 SP even while tiring down the stretch and is only 22 years old!
Is he established as a true ace at this moment? No but how many 22 year rookie SP are instant aces? Only one I know of was Tim Lincecum and that was before he even developed a changeup.
It was fun while it last Jesus but SP > DH will win out every time.
Tell me a Yankee prospect, since Mantle, who projected to hit better than Montero? That's all that means. He's a more highly regarded hitting prospect than Murcer, Williams, Jeter and Cano. That is literally all that means. It doesn't mean he's as good as Mantle, it means since Mantle no hitter has come from the system that's as highly regarded as Montero.
And that he couldn't have been the catcher is bullshit Girardi might have replaced him in those games, but that was Girardi, a no-hit catcher himself, not the organization that believed he could and would catch as well as Posada.
You unintentionally make a good point about Strasburg and trading for SP's in their matrix years. The Yanks asssumed all the risk trading for 2 pitchers in that matrix.
I'm not looking at it as Montero is a DH. I'm looking at it as Montero is a 22 year old kid who could hit 3rd or 4th for the Yanks. That's something the Yanks tend to pay 20M per season.
Most DH's can't bat in the middle of the order for the Yanks. Montero could and he'd also be able to play catcher, if they decided they had to use a declining hitter as DH on some days.
Now, SP vs #3 hitter for the Yanks?
Well, they've on ever paid CC over 20M per among starting pitchers. While they completed Babe Ruth's conversion from SP to #3 hitter for the Yanks.
Also, I've never claimed Montero is a proven MLB commodity. I've claimed he is a great hitter, and there is no evidence that he's not.
Finally, Pineda is a 2 pitch pitcher. His in the second half may have gone up for a number of reasons (babip normalizing, rookie wall, etc) but only having two pitches may also be part of the problem.
Gator at his peak got by with two pitches, Randy Johnson sort of did, and some others have basically been 2 pitch pitchers at points in their career. But generally what separates SP's from RP is that third pitch that can help them through a lineup a second and third time.
Pineda doesn't have that right now, and probably needs it.
Having said all of that, I'm going to look at the bright side of Pineda and Campos in the coming week, but I'm not happy about this trade.
Completely understand your side of things, just feel like you're underestimating and undervaluing Pineda based off of his inaugural season.
A lot is being harped on Pineda only having two pitches at the moment, one is plus-plus and the other is currently plus. I think something that's overlooked is even with just 2 pitches, he put up those numbers as a rookie. He reminds me of a bigger RH David Price. Both of them have absolutely dominant FB and good FB command, with one plus secondary pitch.
There's no denying Montero's ability but to say he is a guaranteed #3 hitter is quite a statement. Cano will be our #3 hitter for the next few years and to be honest, premium bat's hit the market with a lot more frequency than premium arms. This season alone, Fielder and Pujols were the premium bats and the alleged premium arms were Wilson and Darvish. If I'm throwing big money at someone, it's the hitters on the FA market.
I'm still not too sure why you keep referencing Babe Ruth being switched to a full time position player. He is single handedly the best hitter who ever played the game, of course they made the switch.
And too worry about who the yanks DH is at this time is quite premature. You do realize Posada was the primary DH last season and he was the least productive DH in the AL? Anyone is an upgrade to him and if Teix's babip comes back to league average, his stats will jump back up as well.
Anyway, I'm just as saddened to see Montero go as anyone else but he just didn't have a place in this lineup due to contract obligations and his inability to play a position.
I like Pineda, but prefer to get pitchers in their injury matrixes through IFA or the draft.
I like Campos, too. But we should have gotten him as an IFA.
We traded as close to a hitting sure thing as I've seen in pinstripes for risk.
I hate using something we did right to address something we've done wrong.
I have high hopes for Pineda and Campos. I really do. But I was and am much more sure of Montero and he fills a much bigger need.
The Yanks talk about getting their budgets down, but the way to do that is through the farm. They just gave away their future 3/4 hitter for someone else's risk.
Now, when I say he is the future 3/4 hitter, I don't mean this year. But it may not have been long. He' a more talented hitter than Cano, though he shares Cano's ability to get the barrel of the bat on the ball, and like Cano he doesn't have to cheat on pitches to square them up.
Signing Kuroda was solid. Trading Montero was foolish.
Yanks talking to Damon/Pena for DH duties.
Just bring back Matsui to fill the roll.
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