Drafts

As readers of this blog have known for years now, I'm into drafts. I'm not sure why, but I've been interested in drafts, trades and free agency since the Knicks made the Monroe and Jerry Lucas moves when I was a little kid. I started keeping a wary eye on the Yankees's "hot stove" season when they traded my hero, Bobby Murcer for Bobby Bonds, at these things called the Winter Meetings. My dad and I had to go out to Sal Anthony's Italian Restaurant to talk about it once he broke the Murcer news to me. Anyway, as we progress in life and as fans we understand, or try to understand what our teams are doing to try to get better in the present and for the future.


Sports drafts are pretty big these days. The NFL Draft, which used to be a Christmas in April weekend for hardcore football fans, has been turned into a multi-night prime time affair for the more casual but hoping to "get it" fans. The baseball draft, which is 50 rounds, now separates out its first round as a prime time event the night before the following 49 rounds play out during the next two days. Which brings us to the NBA and NHL Drafts that kick off tomorrow with the traditional NBA two rounder.


The NBA used to have longer drafts like the NFL, and NHL, but through their labor negotiations over the years the NBA draft shrunk to only 2 rounds, allowing all of the non-drafteds to be free agents, and ideally get better deals through bidding processes. That's not what really happens, though. The kids who don't get drafted now try to hook on with a Summer League team and hope to impress an NBA team enough for a spot on the end of the bench, or look for work overseas.



The NBA two rounder, is only the latest is a series of somewhat provincial convolutions that have taken place over the years. In the old days, teams had special rights to regional players (this was to build local popularity for the fledgling franchises in the years after WWII, NFL did the same thing). They've also progressed through a period where college underclassmen could declare "hardship" status and enter the draft as sophmores or juniors. This eventually turned into High School players entering the draft and teams spending salary cap fortunes on unskilled players. Remember, the NBA does not have a the player development leagues the MLB and the NHL does for their youngest prospects. In the past few years, the NBA instituted a policy forcing kids to have 1 year of college experience, or 1 year of post high school, non-NBA experience before entering the draft. Neither colleges nor teenagers seem very happy about this one. And judging from NBA history, it is likely to change again before too long. One progressive thing that the NBA allows is the buying and selling of picks. Now this may be crass to some, but it allows the rich teams to give the poor teams the money they need in return for something without the league having to get all draconion with the rich teams wealth. The Knicks should use this strategy more than they have.



The NHL draft is sort of a cross between the NFL draft and the Baseball draft and is pretty fascinating in it's own right. These days it lasts seven or eight rounds, and like the baseball draft offers a variety of different kinds of prospects: Canadian Junior League Players; American High School Players; College Players; and International Players. Like the NBA draft and NFL draft, picks can be traded for other picks, players or even other considerations. They air it on TSN in Canada and it's much more of a family affair than the other drafts. Team execs and scouts go up to the podium en masse to announce their picks and present their jerseys (I refuse to call them sweaters, I have sweaters and I have Rangers jerseys and they're different!). Then they have the option of signing them right away and putting them in their system, or just hanging onto their rights and sending them back to juniors, school or Europe for more seasoning.


Those are the two final drafts of the years and the ones that start tomorrow.


This brings us to the Knicks and Rangers. For as long as I can remember and probably for their entire existence both clubs have been owned by MSG and it's predecessors, and basically, both clubs have been pretty spotty drafters. Whereas the Giants and Yanks have both had high and low periods of drafting, the Knicks and Rangers have gone long periods with absolutely no rhyme or reason to their drafts. And what I'm getting to is essential to following drafts. There's got to be rhyme and reason. When your team is in a good drafting phase, there will be demonstrable logic to their picks and each pick should present at least close to maximum value, relative to round and pick number, to the system your team runs. Drafting for "need" is generally foolish, because the players you will actually get won't, in most cases, have the experience necessary to fill the need they've been chosen to address right away. It can happen at the top of some drafts, other than the baseball draft, but in general, it's not the smart way to go. Value is. Use trades and free agency for your team needs.



Now the Knicks used to draft fairly well, a long time ago when Red Holtzman seemed to be involved in all phases. He picked Reed, Frazier, Cazzie, Bradley, Jackson and later, Lonnie Shelton, Bill Cartwright, Toby Knight, Ray Williams and Michael Ray Richardson (who, but for drugs, was destined for greatness). But since Red left, between being handed Patrick Ewing in 1985 and picking Mark Jackson and one or two others, they blew an awful lot of picks before taking David Lee. I thought they were really turning a corner when Walsh and D'Antoni came aboard and I reallly liked the Gallinari pick, but could not make sense of last year's draft. And that's what I find annoying. I no longer get too attached to one player or another for my teams, but the player taken has to make sense for what they like to do and what works for them. I thought we were putting in a system with D'Antoni when we took Gallo, then last year, we took a non-D'Antoni type player in the first, then bought another first rounder and took another non-D'Antoni pick. Ponderous.



This year, the Knicks will start the draft with only 2 second rounders. Those should be good enough to find something useful for the "find the open man" system that D'Antoni likes. As a rule, the NBA teams pick athletes over players more than any of the other leagues. So many times, NBA teams take guys who can't shoot, pass or dribble because of how high they can jump. Guys who can actually play basketball, therefore fall in the draft, and guys who can't are routinely overdrafted. This should create opportunities for a team with a sytem like the one the Knicks are supposed to have to find some value - even picking late. There's also a possibility that the Knicks might buy a first rounder if the player they want is available. If that's the case, I hope it's a D'Antoni type who knows how to play rather than an athlete who doesn't. I don't think there will be any other fireworks.



The Rangers on the other hand, have been getting better at drafting lately. They had a good streak back when they were getting guys like Leetch and Richter, and earlier when they were getting Ratelle and Park, but they went a long time in between without getting much useful at all. The low point came when they picked Hugh Jessiman several years ago, when everyone left was better, hoping to turn him into a power forward. The good moves started with their European scouts finding guys like Hank and Prucha, but recently as Gordie Clark's role has grown in the organization, they've become better and better drafters in all regions. They take productive players with good measurables, which is essentially the same formula the Giants have used to build a consistent winner under Jerry Reese.


The Rangers should be in great shape with the 10th pick in every round but for the constant fly in their ointment: Glenn Sather. And Glenn has already struck trading away this year's third during last year's draft for Brian Boyle. Yes, that Brian Boyle, one of the reasons we're picking 10th! Still the Rangers will get some players. Picking lower, in the last two drafts in 2008 they got Michael Del Zotto, who just made the all-rookie team, in the first, and Derek Stepan, who just signed his first Ranger contract after dazzling at Wisconsin, in the second. In 2009, the Rangers took, super high upside prep C/F Chris Kreider in the first, who has already distinguished himself in international competition, and junior C/F Ethan Werek who's coming off a terrific MCL shortened season in the juniors. Those are 4 really great value picks. So I have high hopes for the the Rangers first two picks this year, because these are the highest picks they've had in awhile and they've been doing well with less lately.


Hopefully, the Rangers will find a way to add another third rounder, or more picks early to let Gordie and their scouts really help them this year.

So, over the next three days, as we exhort the Knicks and Rangers to draft success, forget need, remember value, and go Knicks and Rangers!